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Stability issues in German money multiplier forecasts

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  • Polster, Rainer
  • Gottschling, Andreas

Abstract

This paper investigates the stability of the German money supply focusing on the period 1991 - 1998. It is shown that the standard ARIMA-Transfer model approach in the literature needs to be augmented by a cointegration term to adequately model the dynamics of money supply in Germany. Additional analysis with regard to the influence of financial innovations on the control of money supply yields evidence that the influence of financial innovations on the multiplier has increased steadily during the observation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Polster, Rainer & Gottschling, Andreas, 1999. "Stability issues in German money multiplier forecasts," Research Notes 99-8, Deutsche Bank Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:998
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 317-340, April.
    2. Johannes, James M & Rasche, Robert H, 1981. "Can the Reserves Approach to Monetary Control Really Work?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(3), pages 298-313, August.
    3. Mokhlis Zaki, 1995. "Forecasting the money multiplier and the control of money supply in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 97-111.
    4. von Hagen, Jurgen, 1993. "Monetary union, money demand, and money supply : A review of the German monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 803-827, May.
    5. Johannes, James M. & Rasche, Robert H., 1979. "Predicting the money multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 301-325, July.
    6. William Poole, 1976. "Interpreting the Fed's Monetary Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 247-260.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Supply; Financial Innovation; Forecasting Money Multiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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