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News media sentiment and investor behavior

Author

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  • Kräussl, Roman
  • Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of news media sentiment on financial market returns and volatility in the long-term. We hypothesize that the way the media formulate and present news to the public produces different perceptions and, thus, incurs different investor behavior. To analyze such framing effects we distinguish between optimistic and pessimistic news frames. We construct a monthly media sentiment indicator by taking the ratio of the number of newspaper articles that contain predetermined negative words to the number of newspaper articles that contain predetermined positive words in the headline and/or the lead paragraph. Our results indicate that pessimistic news media sentiment is positively related to global market volatility and negatively related to global market returns 12 to 24 months in advance. We show that our media sentiment indicator reflects very well the financial market crises and pricing bubbles over the past 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Kräussl, Roman & Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta, 2014. "News media sentiment and investor behavior," CFS Working Paper Series 492, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:492
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    2. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    5. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Naumer, Hans-Jörg, 2023. "TV media sentiment, mutual fund flows and portfolio choice: They do not put their money where their sentiment is," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim & Robert J. Shiller, 2016. "Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys," NBER Working Papers 22143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor behavior; News media sentiment; Financial market crises; Pricing bubbles; Framing effects; MMFs; SEC; securities; net asset value; financial crisis; shadow banking; systemic risk; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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