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Bond portfolio optimization: A risk-return approach

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  • Korn, Olaf
  • Koziol, Christian

Abstract

In this paper, we apply Markowitz's approach of portfolio selection to government bond portfolios. As a main feature of our analysis, we use term structure models to estimate expected returns, return variances, and covariances of different bonds. Our empirical study for the German market shows that a small number of risky bonds is sufficient to reach very promising predicted risk-return profiles. If the number of risky bonds in the portfolio is not too large and the term structure model does not contain more than two factors, these predictions are confirmed by the realized risk-return profiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Korn, Olaf & Koziol, Christian, 2006. "Bond portfolio optimization: A risk-return approach," CFR Working Papers 06-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    2. Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2007. "A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-494, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Nasser Aedh Alreshidi & Mehdi Mrad & Ersoy Subasi & Munevver Mine Subasi, 2020. "Two-stage bond portfolio optimization and its application to Saudi Sukuk Market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 288(1), pages 1-43, May.
    4. Mao Hong & Hao Wei, 2019. "Dynamic Monitoring and Forecasting of the Soundness of U.S. Insurers in a Cyclical Environment," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Mao, Hong & Cheng, Jiang, 2020. "Optimal capitalization and deposit insurance strategies with regard to moral hazard," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Hong Mao & Zhongkai Wen, 2019. "Pricing options of security portfolio in cyclical economic environment," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(5), pages 384-394, September.
    8. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
    9. Hong Mao & Zhongkai Wen, 2020. "Optimal Decision on Dynamic Insurance Price and Investment Portfolio of an Insurer with Multi-dimensional Time-Varying Correlation," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, March.
    10. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Valentina Galvani & Stuart Landon, 2013. "Riding the yield curve: a spanning analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 135-154, January.
    12. Sarac, Burak, 2021. "Varianzrisikoprämien auf deutsche Staatsanleihen [Variance Risk Premiums on German Government Bonds]," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 6(2), pages 370-392.
    13. Richard J. Martin, 2020. "Fixed income portfolio optimisation: Interest rates, credit, and the efficient frontier," Papers 2004.02312, arXiv.org.
    14. Vukovic, Darko & Vyklyuk, Yaroslav & Matsiuk, Natalia & Maiti, Moinak, 2020. "Neural network forecasting in prediction Sharpe ratio: Evidence from EU debt market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    15. Yoshiyuki Shimai & Naoki Makimoto, 2023. "Multi-period Dynamic Bond Portfolio Optimization Utilizing a Stochastic Interest Rate Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(4), pages 817-844, December.
    16. P. Xidonas & C. Hassapis & G. Bouzianis & C. Staikouras, 2018. "An Integrated Matching-Immunization Model for Bond Portfolio Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 595-605, March.
    17. Yaacov Kopeliovich, 2015. "Optimal Portfolios Of Corporate Bonds And Hold To Maturity Strategies," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-34, December.
    18. Iliya Markov & Rodrigue Oeuvray & Nils Tuchschmid, 2013. "Non-fully invested derivative-free bond index replication," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(1), pages 101-124, March.
    19. Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2007. "A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 299-324, December.
    20. Eric Luxenberg & Philipp Schiele & Stephen Boyd, 2024. "Robust Bond Portfolio Construction via Convex–Concave Saddle Point Optimization," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 201(3), pages 1089-1115, June.
    21. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
    22. Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2008. "A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-547, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    23. Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2006. "A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio (Revised in March 2008, Published in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets", Vol.14-4, 299-324, 2007. )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-076, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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