IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cfrwps/0603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bond portfolio optimization: A risk-return approach

Author

Listed:
  • Korn, Olaf
  • Koziol, Christian

Abstract

In this paper, we apply Markowitz's approach of portfolio selection to government bond portfolios. As a main feature of our analysis, we use term structure models to estimate expected returns, return variances, and covariances of different bonds. Our empirical study for the German market shows that a small number of risky bonds is sufficient to reach very promising predicted risk-return profiles. If the number of risky bonds in the portfolio is not too large and the term structure model does not contain more than two factors, these predictions are confirmed by the realized risk-return profiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Korn, Olaf & Koziol, Christian, 2006. "Bond portfolio optimization: A risk-return approach," CFR Working Papers 06-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57759/1/700635327.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1997. "Time Series and Dynamic Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521423083.
    2. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1683, August.
    3. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2000. "Comparing asset pricing models: an investment perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 335-381, June.
    4. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 279-292, September.
    5. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. "Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
    6. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1980. "Conditional Predictions of Bond Prices and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 405-417, May.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    8. Ľuboš Pástor, 2000. "Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 179-223, February.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:4:p:1651-1684 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    2. Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2007. "A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-494, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Nasser Aedh Alreshidi & Mehdi Mrad & Ersoy Subasi & Munevver Mine Subasi, 2020. "Two-stage bond portfolio optimization and its application to Saudi Sukuk Market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 288(1), pages 1-43, May.
    4. Mao Hong & Hao Wei, 2019. "Dynamic Monitoring and Forecasting of the Soundness of U.S. Insurers in a Cyclical Environment," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Mao, Hong & Cheng, Jiang, 2020. "Optimal capitalization and deposit insurance strategies with regard to moral hazard," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Hong Mao & Zhongkai Wen, 2019. "Pricing options of security portfolio in cyclical economic environment," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(5), pages 384-394, September.
    8. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
    9. Hong Mao & Zhongkai Wen, 2020. "Optimal Decision on Dynamic Insurance Price and Investment Portfolio of an Insurer with Multi-dimensional Time-Varying Correlation," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, March.
    10. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Valentina Galvani & Stuart Landon, 2013. "Riding the yield curve: a spanning analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 135-154, January.
    12. Sarac, Burak, 2021. "Varianzrisikoprämien auf deutsche Staatsanleihen [Variance Risk Premiums on German Government Bonds]," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 6(2), pages 370-392.
    13. Richard J. Martin, 2020. "Fixed income portfolio optimisation: Interest rates, credit, and the efficient frontier," Papers 2004.02312, arXiv.org.
    14. Vukovic, Darko & Vyklyuk, Yaroslav & Matsiuk, Natalia & Maiti, Moinak, 2020. "Neural network forecasting in prediction Sharpe ratio: Evidence from EU debt market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    15. Yoshiyuki Shimai & Naoki Makimoto, 2023. "Multi-period Dynamic Bond Portfolio Optimization Utilizing a Stochastic Interest Rate Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(4), pages 817-844, December.
    16. P. Xidonas & C. Hassapis & G. Bouzianis & C. Staikouras, 2018. "An Integrated Matching-Immunization Model for Bond Portfolio Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 595-605, March.
    17. Yaacov Kopeliovich, 2015. "Optimal Portfolios Of Corporate Bonds And Hold To Maturity Strategies," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-34, December.
    18. Iliya Markov & Rodrigue Oeuvray & Nils Tuchschmid, 2013. "Non-fully invested derivative-free bond index replication," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(1), pages 101-124, March.
    19. Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2007. "A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 299-324, December.
    20. Eric Luxenberg & Philipp Schiele & Stephen Boyd, 2024. "Robust Bond Portfolio Construction via Convex–Concave Saddle Point Optimization," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 201(3), pages 1089-1115, June.
    21. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
    22. Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2008. "A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-547, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    23. Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2006. "A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio (Revised in March 2008, Published in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets", Vol.14-4, 299-324, 2007. )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-076, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mishra, Anil V., 2016. "Foreign bias in Australian-domiciled mutual fund holdings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-123.
    2. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2009. "Parametric Portfolio Policies: Exploiting Characteristics in the Cross-Section of Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3411-3447, September.
    3. Victor DeMiguel & Francisco J. Nogales, 2009. "Portfolio Selection with Robust Estimation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 560-577, June.
    4. Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2015. "Down-side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. Mishra, Anil V., 2015. "Measures of equity home bias puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-312.
    6. DeMiguel, Victor & Plyakha, Yuliya & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2013. "Improving Portfolio Selection Using Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(6), pages 1813-1845, December.
    7. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2014. "European Market Portfolio Diversifcation Strategies across the GFC," Working Papers in Economics 14/25, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. Wolff, Dominik & Bessler, Wolfgang & Opfer, Heiko, 2012. "Multi-Asset Portfolio Optimization and Out-of-Sample Performance: An Evaluation of Black-Litterman, Mean Variance and Naïve Diversification Approaches," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62020, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero Gallo & Alessandro Palandri, 2020. "A Dynamic Conditional Approach to Portfolio Weights Forecasting," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    11. Loriana Pelizzon & Massimiliano Caporin, 2012. "Market volatility, optimal portfolios and naive asset allocations," Working Papers 2012_08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    12. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Shelton Peiris & Abhay K. Singh, 2014. "Hedge Fund Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-151/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Mishra, Anil V., 2017. "Foreign bias in Australia's international equity holdings," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 41-54.
    14. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Gallo, Giampiero M. & Palandri, Alessandro, 2021. "A dynamic conditional approach to forecasting portfolio weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1111-1126.
    15. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2011. "Do optimal diversification strategies outperform the 1/N strategy in U.K. stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 375-385.
    16. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2016. "Down-Side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the Global Financial Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, June.
    17. Sessi Tokpavi, 2011. "Asset Allocation with Aversion to Parameter Uncertainty: A Minimax Regression Approach," Working Papers hal-04141019, HAL.
    18. DeMiguel, Victor & Martin-Utrera, Alberto & Nogales, Francisco J., 2013. "Size matters: Optimal calibration of shrinkage estimators for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3018-3034.
    19. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    20. Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2007. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 41-81, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfkoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.