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European Market Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Allen

    (University of Sydney, University of South Australia, Australia)

  • Michael McAleer

    (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain)

  • Robert J. Powell

    (Edith Cowan University, Australia)

  • Abhay K. Singh

    (Edith Cowan University, Australia)

Abstract

This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies as applied to a set of daily arithmetically compounded returns on a set of ten market indices representing the major European markets for a nine year period from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2013. The sample period, which incorporates the periods of both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent European Debt Crisis (EDC), is challenging one for the application of portfolio investment strategies. The analysis is undertaken via the examination of multiple investment strategies and a variety of hold-out periods and back-tests. We commence by using four two year estimation periods and subsequent one year investment hold out period, to analyse a naive 1/N diversification strategy, and to contrast its effectiveness with Markowitz mean variance analysis with positive weights. Markowitz optimisation is then compared with various down-side investment opimisation strategies. We begin by comparing Markowitz with CVaR, and then proceed to evaluate the relative effectiveness of Markowitz with various draw-down strategies, utilising a series of backtests. Our results suggest that none of the more sophisticated optimisation strategies appear to dominate naive diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2014. "European Market Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-134/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20140134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Shelton Peiris & Abhay K. Singh, 2014. "Hedge Fund Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-151/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Víctor Adame-García & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "“Resolution of optimization problems and construction of efficient portfolios: An application to the Euro Stoxx 50 index"," IREA Working Papers 201702, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio Diversification; Markowitz Analaysis; Downside Risk; CVaR; Draw-down;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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