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Stress testing market risk of German financial intermediaries

Author

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  • Falter, Alexander
  • Kleemann, Michael
  • Strobel, Lena
  • Wilke, Hannes

Abstract

The macroprudential market risk stress test presented in this paper proposes a framework to assess the vulnerability of the German financial system with respect to market price shocks, focusing on banks, insurers and investment funds in a consistent manner. A common market risk scenario is translated into price declines for individual financial assets and into incurred losses at the level of individual financial intermediaries. We illustrate our approach with two technical scenarios, derived as percentiles of historic market price movements, representing (i) a significant shock in risk premiums triggering repricing of assets considered risky and (ii) a shock in the yield curve, implying sharp increases in the risk-free rates. Moreover, our approach takes into account specificities in the transmission of market risk to individual financial intermediaries. This includes for banks the calculation of market losses according to the holding purpose and accounting treatment of portfolios. For insurers, adjustments of solvency capital requirements are considered. Meanwhile, second-round amplification and spill-over effects on security and fund share prices are discussed for investment funds due to their high interconnectedness and their susceptibility to redemptions which might trigger asset liquidations.

Suggested Citation

  • Falter, Alexander & Kleemann, Michael & Strobel, Lena & Wilke, Hannes, 2021. "Stress testing market risk of German financial intermediaries," Technical Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubtps:283336
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/283336/1/technical-paper-2021-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
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    3. Fricke, Christoph & Fricke, Daniel, 2021. "Vulnerable asset management? The case of mutual funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Tyler Muir, 2017. "Financial Crises and Risk Premia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 765-809.
    5. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Mr. James Morsink & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2020. "Stress Testing at the IMF," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2020/001, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Feodoria, Mark & Förstemann, Till, 2015. "Lethal lapses: How a positive interest rate shock might stress German life insurers," Discussion Papers 12/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
    8. Baranova, Yuliya & Coen, Jamie & Noss, Joseph & Lowe, Pippa & Silvestri, Laura, 2017. "Simulating stress across the financial system: the resilience of corporate bond markets and the role of investment funds," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 42, Bank of England.
    9. Andreas Jobst & Nobuyasu Sugimoto & Timo Broszeit, 2014. "Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector," IMF Working Papers 2014/133, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Budnik, Katarzyna & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Giglio, Carla & Grassi, Alberto & Durrani, Agha & Figueres, Juan Manuel & Konietschke, Paul & Le Grand, Catherine & Metzler, Julian & Población García, Franc, 2024. "Advancements in stress-testing methodologies for financial stability applications," Occasional Paper Series 348, European Central Bank.
    2. Sydow, Matthias & Fukker, Gábor & Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Franch, Fabio & Gründl, Helmut & Miccio, Debora & Pellegrino, Michela & Gallet, Sébastien & Kotronis, Stelios & Schlütter, Sebastian & So, 2024. "Banks and non-banks stressed: liquidity shocks and the mitigating role of insurance companies," Working Paper Series 3000, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress testing; market risk; financial intermediaries; financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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