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Lethal lapses: How a positive interest rate shock might stress German life insurers

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  • Feodoria, Mark
  • Förstemann, Till

Abstract

Life insurers typically grant policyholders a surrender option. We demonstrate that the resulting lapse risk could materialise in the form of a "policyholder run" if interest rates were to increase sharply. An inverse stress test based on a unique set of regulatory panel data suggests that German life insurers have become less resistant to an upward interest rate shock in the course of the financial and sovereign debt crisis from 2007 to 2011. Despite the challenges presented by the low-interestrate environment, the situation has not deteriorated since then. In light of the quantitative easing (QE) of monetary policy in the euro area, life insurers may find it difficult to continue this positive trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Feodoria, Mark & Förstemann, Till, 2015. "Lethal lapses: How a positive interest rate shock might stress German life insurers," Discussion Papers 12/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:122015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Falter, Alexander & Kleemann, Michael & Strobel, Lena & Wilke, Hannes, 2021. "Stress testing market risk of German financial intermediaries," Technical Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
    3. Tobias Burkhart, 2018. "Surrender Risk in the Context of the Quantitative Assessment of Participating Life Insurance Contracts under Solvency II," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-38, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life insurance; interest rate risk; lapse risk; rational policyholder run; inverse stress test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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