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What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model

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  • Blank, Sven
  • Dovern, Jonas

Abstract

We analyze what macroeconomic shocks affect the soundness of the German banking system and how this, in turn, feeds back into the macroeconomic environment. Recent turmoils on the international financial markets have shown very clearly that assessing the degree to which banks are vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks is of utmost importance to investors and policy makers. We propose to use a VAR framework that takes feedback effects between the financial sector and the macroeconomic environment into account. We identify responses of a distress indicator for the German banking system to a battery of different structural shocks. We find that monetary policy shocks, fiscal policy shocks, and real estate price shocks have a significant impact on the probability of distress in the banking system. We identify some differences across type of banks and different distress categories, though these differences are often small and do not show any systematic patterns.

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  • Blank, Sven & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,15, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:200915
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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. repec:pra:mprapa:38783 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Moayedi, Vafa & Aminfard, Matin, 2011. "The Impact of Policy Shocks on Financial Structure: Empirical Results from Japan," MPRA Paper 39185, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; banking sector stability; sign restriction approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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