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Making sense of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations – the role of (un)certainty

Author

Listed:
  • Meyler, Aidan
  • Reiche, Lovisa

Abstract

Consumers’ inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for monetary policymakers to understand their nature and how they are formed. This article shows that inflation (un)certainty is a channel that can shed light on some of the more puzzling aspects of reported quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations. It helps explain why these may be higher than actual inflation. This is because, in a situation of uncertainty, many consumers report in rounded numbers, often leading them to quantitatively overestimate inflation. We also show that the uncertainty framework fits with some of the stylised facts of consumers’ inflation expectations, such as their correlation with sociodemographic characteristics and economic sentiment. Furthermore, the uncertainty channel may also explain the negative correlation observed between the economic outlook and inflation expectations. JEL Classification: D11, D12, D84, E31, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Meyler, Aidan & Reiche, Lovisa, 2021. "Making sense of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations – the role of (un)certainty," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbart:2021:0002:2
    Note: 496790
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2021/html/ecb.ebart202102_02~32e2ff1af1.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Responsiveness of consumers' medium-term inflation expectations : evidence from a new euro area survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    4. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic: New evidence from Germany," CFS Working Paper Series 658, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: Evidence from a new euro area survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
    6. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    7. Corduas, Marcella, 2022. "Gender differences in the perception of inflation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2021. "Consumer inflation views: Micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    9. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Pearce, Joshua M., 2023. "Can grid-tied solar photovoltaics lead to residential heating electrification? A techno-economic case study in the midwestern U.S," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    10. Yusuke Takahashi & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2022. "Households' Perceived Inflation and CPI Inflation: the Case of Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-1, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumers; Expectations; Inflation; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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