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Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals

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  • Galina Hale

Abstract

The costs of debt crises are not invariant to the foreign debt instrument composition: bank loans or bonds. The lending boom of the 1990s witnessed considerable variation over time and across countries in the debt instrument used by emerging market (EM) borrowers. This paper tests how macroeconomic fundamentals affect the composition of international debt instruments used by EM borrowers. Analysis of micro-level data using ordered probability model shows that macroeconomic fundamentals explain a significant share of variation in the ratio of bonds to loans for private borrowers, but not for the sovereigns.

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  • Galina Hale, 2003. "Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm343, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:wpaper:ysm343
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    Cited by:

    1. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hale, Galina & Minoiu, Camelia, 2015. "Financial crises and the composition of cross-border lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 60-81.
    2. Ayala, Diana & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Saborowski, Christian, 2017. "What slice of the pie? The corporate bond market boom in emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-35.
    3. Nada Azmy Elberry & Frank Naert & Stijn Goeminne, 2023. "Optimal public debt composition during debt crises: A review of theoretical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 351-376, April.
    4. Abraham,Facundo & Cortina Lorente,Juan Jose & Schmukler,Sergio L., 2020. "Growth of Global Corporate Debt : Main Facts and Policy Challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9394, The World Bank.
    5. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
    6. Ayala, Diana & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Saborowski, Christian, 2016. "What slice of the pie? The corporate bond market boom in emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Pina, Gonçalo, 2024. "State-contingent debt with lender risk aversion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 180-189.

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