IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1403.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Author

Abstract

The costs of debt crises are not invariant to the foreign debt instrument composition: bank loans or bonds. The lending boom of the 1990s witnessed considerable variation over time and across countries in the debt instrument used by emerging market (EM) borrowers. This paper tests how macroeconomic fundamentals affect the composition of international debt instruments used by EM borrowers. Analysis of micro-level data using ordered probability model shows that macroeconomic fundamentals explain a significant share of variation in the ratio of bonds to loans for private borrowers, but not for the sovereigns.

Suggested Citation

  • Galina Hale, 2003. "Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1403, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d14/d1403.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Denis, David J. & Mihov, Vassil T., 2003. "The choice among bank debt, non-bank private debt, and public debt: evidence from new corporate borrowings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 3-28, October.
    4. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 35-57, October.
    6. Ruud, Paul A., 2000. "An Introduction to Classical Econometric Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195111644.
    7. Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "Debt Maturity and the Global Financial Architecture," CEPR Discussion Papers 2520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Kletzer, Kenneth & Mody, Ashoka, 2006. "The IMF in a world of private capital markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1335-1357, May.
    9. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June.
    10. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    11. Michael P. Dooley, 2000. "Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?," NBER Working Papers 7531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    13. Claudia M. Buch, 2002. "Are Banks Different? Evidence from International Data," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-114.
    14. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P & Kim, Jung Yeon, 2001. "Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 201-216, July.
    15. Dooley, Michael P., 2000. "International financial architecture and strategic default: can financial crises be less painful?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 361-377, December.
    16. Hale, Galina & Santos, João A.C., 2008. "The decision to first enter the public bond market: The role of firm reputation, funding choices, and bank relationships," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1928-1940, September.
    17. repec:bge:wpaper:185 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    20. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas, 2000. "Equity, Bonds, and Bank Debt: Capital Structure and Financial Market Equilibrium under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 324-351, April.
    21. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1992. "Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's-Length Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1367-1400, September.
    22. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 341-369, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Galina Hale, 2003. "Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm343, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2007.
    2. Alessandra Iannamorelli & Stefano Nobili & Antonio Scalia & Luana Zaccaria, 2024. "Asymmetric Information and Corporate Lending: Evidence from SME Bond Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 163-201.
    3. Akdoğu, Evrim & Alp Paukowits, Aysun, 2022. "Supply of credit and corporate bond covenants," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Matteo Accornero & Paolo Finaldi Russo & Giovanni Guazzarotti & Valentina Nigro, 2015. "First-time corporate bond issuers in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 269, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Davydov, Denis, 2016. "Debt structure and corporate performance in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 299-311.
    6. Paola Bongini & Annalisa Ferrando & Emanuele Rossi & Monica Rossolini, 2021. "SME access to market-based finance across Eurozone countries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1667-1697, April.
    7. Ron Christian Antonczyk & Wolfgang Breuer & Astrid Juliane Salzmann, 2014. "Long-Term Orientation and Relationship Lending: A Cross-Cultural Study on the Effect of Time Preferences on the Choice of Corporate Debt," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 381-415, June.
    8. João M. Pinto & Mário C. Santos, 2018. "The Choice Between Corporate And Structured Financing: Evidence From New Corporate Borrowings," Working Papers de Gestão (Management Working Papers) 01, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    9. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
    10. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Sovereign Debt: Indexation and Maturity," Research Department Publications 4459, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Schmukler,Sergio L. & Versperoni,Esteban, 2000. "Globalization and firms'financing choices - evidence from emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2323, The World Bank.
    12. Joshua D. Rauh & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Capital Structure and Debt Structure," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4242-4280, December.
    13. Xu, Si & He, Xiaoyi & Cao, Chunfang, 2023. "Struggle for survival in credit crunch: The effect of interest rate deregulation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Nagano, Mamoru, 2018. "What promotes/prevents firm bond issuance in emerging economies: Bank–firm relationship or information asymmetry?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 161-177.
    15. Gerber, Anke, 2008. "Direct versus intermediated finance: An old question and a new answer," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 28-54, January.
    16. Davydov, Denis & Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2014. "Does the decision to issue public debt affect firm valuation? Russian evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 136-151.
    17. Chen, Haosi & Maslar, David A. & Serfling, Matthew, 2020. "Asset redeployability and the choice between bank debt and public debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Bedendo, Mascia & Siming, Linus, 2018. "The mitigating effect of bank financing on shareholder value and firm policies following rating downgrades," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 94-108.
    19. Amissah, Emmanuel & Bougheas, Spiros & Defever, Fabrice & Falvey, Rod, 2021. "Financial system architecture and the patterns of international trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Zechner, Josef & Halling, Michael & Yu, Jin, 2020. "The Dynamics of Corporate Debt Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 14572, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; Foreign debt; Debt composition; Country risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.