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Geopolitical Risk and Foreign Portfolio Investment: A Tale of Advanced and Emerging Markets

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  • Sangyup Choi

    (Yonsei University)

  • Jiri Havel

    (University of Rochester)

Abstract

We study the influence of local geopolitical risk on U.S. cross-border portfolio investment, covering the period from 1994 to 2021. We uncover significant heterogeneity between advanced and emerging market destinations, revealing that local geopolitical risk exerts a dampening effect on U.S. purchases of bonds and equities solely within emerging markets, while having no discernible impact on advanced markets. We identify poor institutional quality as the primary driver behind the heightened sensitivity of portfolio investment to geopolitical risk in emerging markets, thereby signaling potential implications for financial stability. Moreover, our analysis reveals a noteworthy phenomenon where U.S. investment in emerging market bonds experiences a considerable decline in response to the geopolitical risk within other emerging markets in close geographical proximity, displaying a robust contagion effect. However, such contagions do not manifest in cross-border equity investment. Notably, these contagion effects are observed exclusively among emerging markets, providing valuable insights into investors’ portfolio adjustments in the face of elevated geopolitical risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Sangyup Choi & Jiri Havel, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Foreign Portfolio Investment: A Tale of Advanced and Emerging Markets," Working papers 2023rwp-221, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:yon:wpaper:2023rwp-221
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; Foreign portfolio investment; Emerging markets; Institutional quality; Trilemma; Contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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