IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wse/wpaper/27.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Andrzej Toroj

    (Warsaw School of Economics, National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

In this paper, we follow the econometric approach to assess relative importance of real interest rate and real exchange rate for the monetary conditions in Poland, quantified as weights for Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). We consider both single- and multiple-equation specifications proposed in the literature with an application to Poland. Although MCI is nowadays broadly considered a rather obsolete indicator in monetary policy conduct, we argue that the econometric framework used for this purpose could be a good departure point when modelling monetary adjustments in a monetary union, provided correct dynamic specification of the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrzej Toroj, 2008. "Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland," Working Papers 27, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/struktura/IE/struktura/ZES/Documents/Working_Papers/aewp06-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eika, Kari H & Ericsson, Neil R & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 765-790, November.
    2. Volker Clausen & Bernd Hayo, 2006. "Asymmetric monetary policy effects in EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1123-1134.
    3. Andreas Fischer & Adrian Orr, 1994. "The Determinants and Properties of Monetary Conditions: Direct Survey Evidence from New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 150, OECD Publishing.
    4. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area: Useful Indicators of Aggregate Demand Conditions?," Kiel Working Papers 1037, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Professor Lars E O Svensson, 2001. "Independent review of the operation of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, March.
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    7. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    8. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2000. "The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 199-231, June.
    9. Aaron Drew, 2002. "Lessons from Inflation Targeting in New Zealand," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 12, pages 501-538, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. repec:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:3:p:413-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Céline Gauthier & Christopher Graham & Ying Liu, 2004. "Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-22, Bank of Canada.
    13. Hofmann, Boris & Remsperger, Hermann, 2005. "Inflation differentials among the Euro area countries: Potential causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-419, June.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2001_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262513374, December.
    16. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hofmann, Boris, 2004. "Macroeconomic implications of low inflation in the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-23, March.
    17. Bofinger, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy: Goals, Institutions, Strategies, and Instruments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248568.
    18. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2001. "Asset prices, financial conditions and the transmission of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    19. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
    20. Gregory, Allan W & Veall, Michael R, 1985. "Formulating Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1465-1468, November.
    21. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
    22. Grande, Giuseppe, 1997. "Properties of the monetary conditions index," MPRA Paper 23515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Brisne J. V. Céspedes & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Alexis Maka & Mário J. C. Mendonça, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Brazil," Discussion Papers 1128, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    24. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," NBP Working Papers 86, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Van Vliet, Olaf & Been, Jim & Caminada, Koen & Goudswaard, Kees, 2011. "Pension reform and income inequality among the elderly in 15 European countries," MPRA Paper 32940, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Torój, Andrzej, 2010. "Adjustment capacity in a monetary union: a DSGE evaluation of Poland and Slovakia," MF Working Papers 4, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 11 May 2010.
    2. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," NBP Working Papers 86, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Working Papers hal-00973056, HAL.
    4. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Augmented MCi: AN Indicator Of Monetary Policy Stance For ASEAN-5?," Monash Economics Working Papers 25-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
    6. Christophe BLOT & Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Countries Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 244, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. Muhamed Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2012. "Measuring monetary conditions in a small open economy: the case of Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 218-231, July.
    8. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," NBP Working Papers 54, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    10. ?lyas ??klar & Burhan Do?an, 2015. "Monetary Condition Index with Time Varying Weights: An Application to Turkish Data," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 117-132, June.
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September.
    15. Richard Dennis, 1997. "A measure of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    17. Kose,Ayhan & Matsuoka,Hideaki & Panizza,Ugo G. & Vorisek,Dana Lauren, 2019. "Inflation Expectations : Review and Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8785, The World Bank.
    18. Hammermann, Felix, 2003. "Comparing Monetary Policy Strategies: Towards a Generalized Reaction Function," Kiel Working Papers 1170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Wai-Ching Poon, 2010. "A monetary policy rule: The augmented Monetary Conditions Index for Philippines using UECM and bounds tests," Monash Economics Working Papers 04-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    20. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
    21. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6407 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Céline Gauthier & Fuchun Li, 2006. "Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model," Staff Working Papers 06-42, Bank of Canada.
    23. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: is there a puzzle?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-36.
    24. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 74-91, Winter.
    25. Boris Cournède & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Is there a Case for Price-level Targeting?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 721, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Conditions Index; MCI-ratio; IS curve; Phillips curve; VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcin Owczarczuk (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dxwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.