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The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Evidence for Germany

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  • G. Boero
  • C. Torricelli

Abstract

In this paper we examine the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) using a newly constructed monthly database of zero coupon bond yields from the German Government bond market. We use data at the short end of the maturity spectrum (maturities less than two years) and employ two approaches to predict future movements in shorter-term interest rates - one based on the yield spread, the other based on the forward-spot rate spread. We find that for the period considered, 1985 - 2-1994 - 12, both spreads contain substantial information for predicting future interest rate movements. Moreover, the results are, in general, consistent with the implications of the EHT, as far as the value of the coefficient of the spread is concerned. This means that in Germany the spread can be used as an important indicator for the conduct of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Boero & C. Torricelli, 1997. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Evidence for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 199704, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    • Handle: RePEc:cns:cnscwp:199704
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. G. Boero & C. Torricelli, 1999. "The Information in the Term of Structure: further Results for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 199912, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    2. LR. Keller & E. Strazzera, 2000. "Examining predictive models among discounting models," Working Paper CRENoS 200005, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    3. C. Antonelli & R. Marchionatti & S. Usai, 2000. "Productivity and External Knowledge: The Italian Case," Working Paper CRENoS 200009, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    4. Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1998. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: Some Comparative Evidence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 512, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. R. Carcangiu & G. Sistu & S. Usai, 1999. "Struttura socio-economica dei comuni della Sardegna. Suggerimenti da un'analisi cluster," Working Paper CRENoS 199903, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
    7. R. Naylor, 2001. "Firm profits and the number of firms under unionised oligopoly," Working Paper CRENoS 200109, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    8. R. Naylor, 2001. "Industry profits and market size under bilateral oligopoly," Working Paper CRENoS 200108, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. M. Musumeci, 2000. "Innovazione tecnologica e beni culturali. Uno studio sulla situazione della Sicilia," Working Paper CRENoS 200008, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    10. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2002. "The information in the term structure of German interest rates," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 21-45.

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