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Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation

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  • Lawrence J. Christiano
  • Lars Ljungqvist

Abstract

A bivariate Granger-causality test on money and output finds statistically significant causality when data are measured in log levels, but not when they are measured in first differences of the logs. Which of these results is right? The answer to that question matters because a finding of no Granger-causality from money to output would substantially embarrass existing business cycle models in which money plays an important role [Eichenbaum and Singleton (1986)]. Monte Carlo simulation experiments indicate that, most probably, the first difference results reflect lack of power, whereas the level results reflect Granger-causality that is actually in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist, 1987. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation," Staff Report 108, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:108
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. D.M. Nachane & Amlendu Kumar Dubey, 2008. "The vanishing role of money in the macroeconomy: An Empirical investigation based on spectral and wavelet analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-022, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Todd, Richard M., 2002. "The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 335-364, March.
    6. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1987. "Why is consumption less volatile than income?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 11(Fall), pages 2-20.
    8. BIKAI, J. Landry & KENKOUO, Guy Albert, 2015. "Analysis and evaluation of the Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the CEMAC: A SVAR and SPVAR Approaches," MPRA Paper 78227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chao, John & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2001. "Out-Of-Sample Tests For Granger Causality," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 598-620, September.
    10. Yash P. Mehra, 1987. "Velocity and the variability of money growth: evidence from Granger- causality tests reevaluated," Working Paper 87-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    11. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
    12. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    13. D. M. Nachane & Amlendu Kumar Dubey, 2008. "The Vanishing Role of Money in the Macroeconomy - An Empirical Investigation Based On Spectral and Wavelet Analysis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22369, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2003. "How do Canadian hours worked respond to a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 774, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. James B. Bullard, 1991. "The FOMC in 1990: onset of recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 31-53.
    16. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Unit roots and long-run causality: investigating the relationship between output, money and interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 91-112, January.

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    Keywords

    Monetary theory; Money theory;

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