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Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach

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  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

    (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

For the successful conduct of monetary policy the central bank needs reliable indicators of the monetary policy stance. A recently often advocated one is the gap between the real, market and the natural rate of interest. In this article we estimate the historical time series of the natural rate of interest using a structural vector autoregressive model. This method returns plausible results and thus seems to be well designed for the estimation of the natural rate of interest. We show that the natural rate exhibits quite substantial variability over time, of comparable magnitude to the variability of the real interest rate. We also find that it is a procyclical variable. We conclude that the gap between the natural and real market interest rates can be considered a useful, although not perfect, indicator of the stance of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2003. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach," Macroeconomics 0301008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0301008
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2004. "The Information Content of the Natural Rate of Interest: The Case of Poland," Macroeconomics 0402007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
    3. Jakub Borowski & Michal Brzoza- Brzezina, 2004. "Designing Poland’s Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area," Macroeconomics 0404015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kei Imakubo & Haruki Kojima & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "The natural yield curve: its concept and measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 551-572, September.
    5. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Gantumur, Munkhbayar, 2020. "Measuring the natural rate of interest in a commodity exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 199-218.
    6. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    7. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    8. Jakub Borowski & Michal Brzoza- Brzezina & Piotr Szpunar, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Poland's Participation in ERM II," Macroeconomics 0302002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
    10. Mite Miteski & Magdalena Petrovska & Рртан Сулејмани, 2023. "Measuring the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy: a multi-model approach," Working Papers 2023-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    11. Muñoz-Salas, Evelyn & Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo, 2017. "Estimation of the neutral real interest rate for Costa Rica," Revista de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Costa Rica, vol. 35(2), July.
    12. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Torój, Andrzej, 2010. "Adjustment capacity in a monetary union: a DSGE evaluation of Poland and Slovakia," MF Working Papers 4, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 11 May 2010.
    14. Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina, 2006. "The information content of the neutral rate of interest," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(2), pages 391-412, April.
    15. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," NBP Working Papers 86, Narodowy Bank Polski.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural rate of interest; SVAR; monetary policy; interest rate gap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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