Estimating the neutral real interest rate in an emerging market economy
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1080/00036840802599768
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2003.
"The informational content of empirical measures of real interst rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom,"
BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 414-442,
Bank for International Settlements.
- Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2004. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 224, Bank of England.
- Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005.
"The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation,"
Working Paper
2005/14, Norges Bank.
- Garnier, Julien & Wilhelmsen, Björn-Roger, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation," Working Paper Series 546, European Central Bank.
- Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1991.
"Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, January.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1990. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969, January.
- Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003.
"The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 239-262, April.
- Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
- Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England.
- Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F. OğunC & D. Ece, 2004. "Estimating the output gap for Turkey: an unobserved components approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 177-182.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003.
"Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
- Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 35, Society for Computational Economics.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002.
"Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999.
"Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting,"
NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
- Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2004. "The natural real interest rate and monetary policy: a review," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 641-660, July.
- Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005.
"Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
- Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
- Nils Björksten & Özer Karagedikli, 2003. "Neutral real interest rates revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 66, pages 1-11, September.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.
- Ilyas Siklar & Umit Yildiz & Sinan Cakan, 2016. "The Time - Varying Natural Rate of Interest and Its Fundamental Determinants: Time Series Evidence from Turkey," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 390-400, December.
- Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/243, International Monetary Fund.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009.
"Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru,"
Working Papers
2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2011. "Estimation Of A Time Varying Natural Interest Rate For Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2011-316, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005.
"Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2008.
"La tasa de interés natural en Colombia,"
Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 164-201,
Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
- Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2007. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(54), pages 44-89, June.
- Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2007. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(54), pages 44-89, June.
- Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 412, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3088, Banco de la Republica.
- Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021.
"Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment,"
International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
- Enrico S. Levrero, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers Series 88, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
- Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007.
"A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
- Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020.
"Interest Rates under Falling Stars,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run," MPRA Paper 57770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007.
- Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan, 2007. "The natural rate of interest: which concept? which estimation method? which policy conclusions?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 667-688.
- Horváth, Roman, 2009.
"The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
- Roman Horvath, 2007. "The Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time: A Predictor for Future Inflation?," Working Papers 2007/4, Czech National Bank.
- Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Working papers 157, Banque de France.
- Philip Arestis & Georgios E Chortareas, 2008. "Atheoretical and Theory-Based Approaches to the Natural Equilibrium Real Interest Rate," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 390-405.
- Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
- Ray Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2527, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2005.
- Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2003.
"The informational content of empirical measures of real interst rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom,"
BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 414-442,
Bank for International Settlements.
- Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2004. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 224, Bank of England.
- Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010.
"(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty?: The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
972, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Ray C. Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1525, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Romain Bouis & Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2009:i:6:p:683-693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.