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Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia

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  • Hanno Lustig

    (University of Chicago)

  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

In a model with housing collateral, the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth shifts the conditional distribution of asset prices and consumption growth. A decrease in house prices reduces the collateral value of housing and increases household exposure to idiosyncratic risk. The conditional market price of risk increases. Using aggregate data for the US, we find that a decrease in the housing collateral ratio predicts higher returns on stocks. Conditional on this ratio, the covariance of returns with aggregate risk explains up to eighty percent of the cross- sectional variation in annual size and book-to-market portfolio returns. Regional risk-sharing patterns for US metropolitan areas lend direct support to the housing collateral channel. In times with a high housing collateral ratio, consumption growth is more strongly correlated across regions. Time-variation in the degree of risk-sharing induced by house price changes sheds new light on the consumption correlation puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2002. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia," Macroeconomics 0211008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0211008
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    Cited by:

    1. Marjorie Flavin & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2004. "A Model of Housing in the Presence of Adjustment Costs: A Structural Interpretation of Habit Persistence," NBER Working Papers 10458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    3. Andrea Ferrero, 2015. "House Price Booms, Current Account Deficits, and Low Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 261-293, March.
    4. Matthias Messner & Nicola Pavoni, 2004. "On the Recursive Saddle Point Method," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000050, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    6. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
    7. Robert F. Martin Joseph W. Gruber, 2004. "Does Housing Wealth Make Us Less Equal? The Role of Durable Goods in the Distribution of Wealth," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 15, Econometric Society.
    8. Fang Yang, 2005. "Consumption Along the Life Cycle: How Different is Housing?," 2005 Meeting Papers 718, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin & Tuzel, Selale, 2007. "Housing, consumption and asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 531-569, March.
    10. Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers 376, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Andreas Lehnert, 2004. "Housing, consumption, and credit constraints," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Joseph W. Gruber & Robert F. Martin, 2003. "Precautionary savings and the wealth distribution with illiquid durables," International Finance Discussion Papers 773, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Laura Veldkamp & Chris Edmond, 2006. "Income Dispersion, Asymmetric Information and Fluctuations in Market Efficiency," Working Papers 06-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    14. Slacalek Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, October.
    15. Nitschka, Thomas, 2010. "Securitization, collateral constraints and consumption risk sharing in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 197-199, March.
    16. Mathias Hoffmann & Toshihiro Okubo, 2021. "Comparative advantage and pathways to financial development: evidence from Japan’s silk-reeling industry," ECON - Working Papers 387, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    17. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2097-2137, September.
    18. Raj Chetty & Adam Szeidl, 2016. "Consumption Commitments and Habit Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 855-890, March.
    19. Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "The Risk Premium on the Euro Area Market Portfolio: The Role of Real Estate," IEW - Working Papers 385, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    20. Pakos, Michal, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Durable Goods and Nonhomothetic Preferences," MPRA Paper 26167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.

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    subliminal extant Smith economagic gmm;

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