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Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • John T. Cuddington

    (Georgetown University)

  • Hong Liang

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

This paper documents a new "stylized fact" regarding commodity prices using alternative datasets covering the period from 1880 to 1996: The volatility of real commodity prices, defined as nominal commodity prices deflated by the manufacturing unit value index, is higher under flexible-exchange rate regimes than fixed-exchange rate regimes. Furthermore, changes in exchange regime are associated with changes in the persistence of commodity price shocks. Implications of this finding for open-economy macro modeling are briefly discussed in the concluding section.

Suggested Citation

  • John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang, 1998. "Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes," International Finance 9802003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 May 1998.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9802003
    Note: Type of Document - MS Word 97; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP; pages: 31 ; figures: included
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    Cited by:

    1. Arezki, Rabah & Dumitrescu, Elena & Freytag, Andreas & Quintyn, Marc, 2014. "Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 96-105.
    2. Adusei Jumah, 2001. "The effects of dollar-sterling exchange rate volatility on futures markets for coffee and cocoa," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 28(3), pages 307-328, October.
    3. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Walter Labys, 2005. "Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2005-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    5. David Matesanz & Benno Torgler & Germán Dabat & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2014. "Co-movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 13-21, November.
    6. Matthew Kofi Ocran & Nicholas Biekpe, 2007. "The Role Of Commodity Prices In Macroeconomic Policy In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 213-220, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed/floating exchange rate regimes; Commodity Prices; Volatility; Time series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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