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An oversimplified inquiry into the sources of exchange rate variability

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  • Kempa, Bernd

Abstract

Exchange rates as well as relative price level and output movements are decomposed into components associated with nominal shocks as well as shocks to aggregate supply and aggregate demand. In contrast to previous analyses of such decompositions based on statistical vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, this study takes as a starting point a simple textbook model of exchange rate determination, augments it by allowing for suitably defined random shocks and transforms it into a triangular format resembling the identification procedure of the VAR methodology. Applied to major bilateral exchange rate series, the decomposition suggests that exchange rate variability is mostly driven by shocks to aggregate demand, partcularly in the longer run. Overall, the evidence is roughly in line with previous decompositions obtained from statistical VARs.

Suggested Citation

  • Kempa, Bernd, 2003. "An oversimplified inquiry into the sources of exchange rate variability," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 129, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:udewwd:129
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; vector autoregression; nominal and real shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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