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Extracting Probabilistic Information from the Prices of Interest Rate Options: Tests of Distributional Assumptions

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  • Kabir K. Dutta
  • David F. Babbel

Abstract

Return distributions in general and interest rates in particular have been observed to exhibit skewness and kurtosis that cannot be explained by the (log)normal distribution. Using g-and-h distribution we derived a closed-form option pricing formula for pricing European options. We measured its performance using interest rate cap data and compared it with the option prices based on the lognormal, Burr-3, Weibull, and GB2 distributions. We observed that the g-and-h distribution exhibited a high degree of accuracy in pricing options, much better than those other distributions in extracting probabilistic information from the option market.
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  • Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2002. "Extracting Probabilistic Information from the Prices of Interest Rate Options: Tests of Distributional Assumptions," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:02-26
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    14. Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2002. "On Measuring Skewness and Kurtosis in Short Rate Distributions: The Case of the US Dollar London Inter Bank Offer Rates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-25, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Mauler & James McDonald, 2015. "Option Pricing and Distribution Characteristics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 579-595, April.
    2. Eeckhoudt, Louis & Schlesinger, Harris, 2008. "Changes in risk and the demand for saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1329-1336, October.
    3. Albrecht, Peter & Schwake, Edmund & Winter, Peter, 2007. "Quantifizierung operationeller Risiken: Der Loss Distribution Approach," German Risk and Insurance Review (GRIR), University of Cologne, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, vol. 3(1), pages 1-45.
    4. Ornelas, José Renato Haas & Barbachan, José Santiago Fajardo & Farias, Aquiles Rocha de, 2012. "Estimating relative risk aversion, risk-neutral and real-world densities using brazilian real currency options," EBAPE Working Papers 1, FGV EBAPE - Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas (Brazil).
    5. Marcos Massaki Abe & Eui Jung Chang & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Density Using Parametric Models: the Case of Brazil," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 5(1), pages 29-39.
    6. Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2002. "On Measuring Skewness and Kurtosis in Short Rate Distributions: The Case of the US Dollar London Inter Bank Offer Rates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-25, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Andreas A. Jobst, 2007. "It's all in the data – consistent operational risk measurement and regulation," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 423-449, November.
    8. Xu, Yihuan & Iglewicz, Boris & Chervoneva, Inna, 2014. "Robust estimation of the parameters of g-and-h distributions, with applications to outlier detection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 66-80.
    9. Sanjiv Jaggia & Alison Kelly-Hawke, 2009. "Modelling skewness and elongation in financial returns: the case of exchange-traded funds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1305-1316.
    10. Fischer, Matthias J., 2006. "Generalized Tukey-type distributions with application to financial and teletraffic data," Discussion Papers 72/2006, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Statistics and Econometrics.
    11. José María Sarabia & Vanesa Jordá & Faustino Prieto & Montserrat Guillén, 2020. "Multivariate Classes of GB2 Distributions with Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    12. José Renato Haas Ornelas & Marcelo Yoshio Takami, 2011. "Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Brazilian Interest Rate Options," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 9-26.

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