IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wop/pennca/95-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

"The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs''

Author

Listed:
  • Jayasri Dutta
  • Stephen Morris

Abstract

At a Rational Expectations Equilibrium (REE), individuals are assumed to know the map from states to prices. This hypothesis has two components, that agents agree (consensus), and that they have point expectations (degeneracy). We consider economies where agents' beliefs are described by a joint distribution on states and prices, and these beliefs are fulfilled at equilibrium. Beliefs are self-fulfilling if every price in the support of the distribution is an equilibrium price. The corresponding equilibria are Beliefs Equilibria (BE). The further restriction that agents have the same beliefs results in Common Beliefs Equilibria (CBE). We study the relationship between BE, CBE, and REE, thus isolating the role of consensus and of degeneracy in achieving rational expectations.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jayasri Dutta & Stephen Morris, "undated". ""The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs''," CARESS Working Papres 95-03, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:pennca:95-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/econ/CARESS/CARESSpdf/95-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geanakoplos, John & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1989. "Real indeterminacy with financial assets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 22-38, February.
    2. Heracles M. Polemarchakis & Beth Allen & Jayasri Dutta, 1994. "Equilibrium Selections," Working Papers hal-00607668, HAL.
    3. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
    4. Polemarchakis, H M & Siconolfi, P, 1993. "Asset Markets and the Information Revealed by Prices," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(4), pages 645-661, October.
    5. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-678, May.
    6. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1254-1278, December.
    7. Aumann, Robert J, 1987. "Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Adam Brandenburger & Eddie Dekel, 2014. "Rationalizability and Correlated Equilibria," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Language of Game Theory Putting Epistemics into the Mathematics of Games, chapter 3, pages 43-57, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. McAllister, Patrick H., 1990. "Rational behavior and rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 332-363, December.
    10. Allen, Beth E, 1981. "Generic Existence of Completely Revealing Equilibria for Economies with Uncertainty when Prices Convey Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1173-1199, September.
    11. Ausubel, Lawrence M., 1990. "Partially-revealing rational expectations equilibrium in a competitive economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 93-126, February.
    12. Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 481-494, June.
    13. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    14. Allen, Beth, 1981. "A class of monotone economies in which rational expectations equilibria exist but prices do not reveal all information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 227-232.
    15. Stephen Morris, "undated". ""Justifying Rational Expectations''," CARESS Working Papres 95-04, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    16. James Peck & Karl Shell, 1991. "Market Uncertainty: Correlated and Sunspot Equilibria in Imperfectly Competitive Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(5), pages 1011-1029.
    17. Jordan, James S. & Radner, Roy, 1982. "Rational expectations in microeconomic models: An overview," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, April.
    18. Allen, Beth, 1985. "The existence of fully rational expectations approximate equilibria with noisy price observations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 213-253, December.
    19. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1987. "Correlated equilibria and sunspots," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 364-373, December.
    20. Anderson, Robert M. & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1982. "On the existence of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 261-278, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. João Correia-da-Silva, 2015. "Two-period economies with price-contingent deliveries," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(3), pages 509-525, August.
    2. Elchanan Ben-Porath, 2007. "Trade with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Discussion Paper Series dp462, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    3. Gabriel Desgranges, 2000. "CK-Equilibria and Informational Efficiency in a Competitive Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1296, Econometric Society.
    4. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
    5. Elchanan Ben-Porath & Aviad Heifetz, 2007. "Rationalizable Expectations," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001499, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Michael Zierhut, 2016. "Partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium with real assets and binding constraints," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 495-516, August.
    7. Krebs, Tom, 2001. "Endogenous probabilities and the information revealed by prices," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Michael Ostrovsky, 2012. "Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets With Strategic Traders," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2595-2647, November.
    9. Felipe Zurita, 2001. "Speculation in Financial Markets: A Survey," Documentos de Trabajo 197, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    10. Heifetz, Aviad & Polemarchakis, Heracles M., 1998. "Partial Revelation with Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 171-181, May.
    11. Beaudry, Paul & Gonzalez, Francisco M., 2003. "An equilibrium analysis of information aggregation and fluctuations in markets with discrete decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 76-103, November.
    12. Herakles Polemarchakis, 2015. "Markets and Efficiency," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 150-166, June.
    13. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 2008. "Trade and revelation of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 132-164, January.
    14. P. Herings & Kirsten Rohde, 2006. "Time-inconsistent preferences in a general equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(3), pages 591-619, November.
    15. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Hahn, Frank, 1999. "Notes on Sequence Economies, Transaction Costs, and Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 203-218, June.
    16. Ben-Porath, Elchanan & Heifetz, Aviad, 2011. "Common knowledge of rationality and market clearing in economies with asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2608-2626.
    17. Le Van, Cuong & Navrouzoglou, Paulina & Vailakis, Yiannis, 2019. "On endogenous formation of price expectations," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 436-458.
    18. Elchanan Ben-Porath & Aviad Heifetz, 2005. "Rationalizable Expectations," Economics Working Papers 0057, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
    19. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 1997. "Extrinsic Uncertainty and the Informational Role of Prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 154-180, November.
    20. Elchanan Ben-Porath, 2007. "Trade with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001494, UCLA Department of Economics.
    21. Jayasri Dutta & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2012. "Comment on "Sovereign Bailouts and Senior Loans"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 292-297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. de Boisdeffre, Lionel, 2022. "Dropping rational expectations," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 37-46.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 1997. "Extrinsic Uncertainty and the Informational Role of Prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 154-180, November.
    2. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
    3. Beth Allen & James S. Jordan, 1998. "The existence of rational expectations equilibrium: a retrospective," Staff Report 252, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Michael Zierhut, 2016. "Partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium with real assets and binding constraints," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 495-516, August.
    5. Rahi, Rohit, 1995. "Partially revealing rational expectations equilibria with nominal assets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 137-146.
    6. Le Van, Cuong & Navrouzoglou, Paulina & Vailakis, Yiannis, 2019. "On endogenous formation of price expectations," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 436-458.
    7. Heifetz, Aviad & Polemarchakis, Heracles M., 1998. "Partial Revelation with Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 171-181, May.
    8. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    9. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 2008. "Trade and revelation of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 132-164, January.
    10. Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2001. "Rational Limits to Arbitrage," FMG Discussion Papers dp392, Financial Markets Group.
    11. Gabriel Desgranges, 2000. "CK-Equilibria and Informational Efficiency in a Competitive Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1296, Econometric Society.
    12. Scott Condie & Jayant V. Ganguli, 2011. "Ambiguity and Rational Expectations Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(3), pages 821-845.
    13. Nicolas S. Lambert & Michael Ostrovsky & Mikhail Panov, 2018. "Strategic Trading in Informationally Complex Environments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1119-1157, July.
    14. Benhabib, Jess & Wang, Pengfei, 2015. "Private information and sunspots in sequential asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 558-584.
    15. Polemarchakis, Herakles M. & Ray, Indrajit, 2006. "Sunspots, correlation and competition," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 174-184, July.
    16. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2017. "Uncertainty and Sentiment-Driven Equilibria," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 281-304, Springer.
    17. Davila, Julio, 2003. "Multiplicity, instability and sunspots in games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 197-217, June.
    18. Bernardo, Antonio E. & Judd, Kenneth L., 2000. "Asset market equilibrium with general tastes, returns, and informational asymmetries," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 17-43, February.
    19. Frank Heinemann, 1997. "Rationalizable expectations and sunspot equilibria in an overlapping-generations economy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 257-277, October.
    20. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:pennca:95-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.