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Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness

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  • A. Westlund
  • T.Y. Ermolieva
  • F.L. MacKellar

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the robustness of an economic-demographic projection model emphasizing the macroeconomic impact of age-structured savings and consumption behavior. The parameters varied are saving and labor force participation rates (two of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policy debate) and the parameters of the production function (the key source of uncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysis focuses on three variables: assets of the private pension system, the income of the non-working elderly, and the balance of the Pay As You Go Pension system.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 2, pages 17-56, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Landis MacKellar & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "A Simulation Model of Global Pension Investment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 137, OECD Publishing.
    4. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    6. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1992. "Pension Systems in Transition Economies: Perspectives and Choices Ahead," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 47(Supplemen), pages 21-33.
    7. James, Estelle, 1998. "New Models for Old-Age Security: Experiments, Evidence, and Unanswered Questions," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 271-301, August.
    8. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    9. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar & A. Westlund, 1999. "Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers ir99024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    2. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    3. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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