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Worldwide Population Aging: Endogenous Policy Formation and Capital Market Transmissions in the Presence of Symmetric Demographic Shocks

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  • Mehmet Serkan Tosun

Abstract

This paper examines the transition effects of population aging in more developed regions that is also expected to occur in developing regions in the near future. We address these effects by exploring the influences of internationally mobile capital and a politically responsive fiscal policy in a two-country overlapping generations model. Our results show that the combination of capital mobility and endogenous fiscal policy play an important role in how economies respond to population aging. Capital mobility has consumption smoothing effects but endogenous fiscal policy is the key factor in creating asymmetries between countries. The interaction of the two may even account for a change in the pattern, in addition to a change in the size, of the effects of population aging on economic growth and welfare when compared to closed economy and exogenous fiscal policy models. We find that even when the demographic shock in the two regions is symmetric, reaction to this shock depends on the timing of the shock. Overall, the late, developing country demographic shock produces relatively more favorable economic outcomes worldwide. Finally, our analysis of the timing of developing country aging indicates that an early aging scenario is more beneficial for both regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2000. "Worldwide Population Aging: Endogenous Policy Formation and Capital Market Transmissions in the Presence of Symmetric Demographic Shocks," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 27, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    • Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:27
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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