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Shortages, interest rates, and money demand in Poland, 1969-1995

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  • Erwin Nijsse
  • Elmer Sterken,

Abstract

The paper estimates a household money demand function for Poland from 1969 to 1995. Contrary to theoretical belief and earlier empirical evidence portfolio arguments are found to be significant. Despite regime shifts during the 1980s and full liberalization of the Polish economy in the beginning of 1990, cointegration relationships are found between broad real money holdings, real household income, an interest rate on an alternative asset, the inflation rate and shortage of goods. Because Poland knew severe policy shocks and monetary data show a development from a cash to a savings economy, extensive attention is paid to parameter constancy and stability of the cointegration relationships. Tests generally confirm stability of long-run income and interest elasticities. Short-run money demand estimates illustrate expectations of increased income and interest elasticities, as well as an increasingly active adjustment behavior. Some implications of our main findings for monetary stabilization policy are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Erwin Nijsse & Elmer Sterken,, 1996. "Shortages, interest rates, and money demand in Poland, 1969-1995," Working Papers 25, Centre for Economic Research, University of Groningen and University of Twente.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:ccsowp:0025
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Mulligan & Erwin Nijsse, 2001. "Shortage and currency substitution in transition economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(3), pages 275-295, August.
    2. Guisan, Maria-Carmen & Aguayo, Eva & Carballas, David, 2004. "Economic Growth and Cycles in Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia: A comparison with Spain, Austria and other EU countries, 1950-2002," Economic Development 79, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    money demand; cointegration; shortage economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • P23 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population

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