IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wii/wpaper/199.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential Mobility from Africa, Middle East and EU Neighbouring Countries to Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Grieveson

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Michael Landesmann

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

Migration from Africa and the Middle East to the EU has intensified over the last two decades. Relative differences between developed EU and less developed African and Middle East countries have not declined that much and continue to drive mobility. Also, demographic trends show a strong contrast between the population of the EU (ageing and shrinking rapidly) and that of Africa and the Middle East (young and continuously increasing). Apart from demographic pressures and development gaps, other forces related to conflicts and wars, as well as climate risks, have become important drivers of mobility and are not expected to fade away soon. Anticipating migration flows in order to ensure better management and regulated mobility has become essential, although this is an exercise subject to high uncertainty. With these caveats in mind, this study seeks to calculate long-term potential mobility from Africa, the Middle East and Eastern EU neighbouring countries to EU28 and EFTA by applying a migration gravity model following a scenario-based approach. Projections for 2020-2029 suggest that migration flows to the EU from Africa, in particular, will dominate the South-North mobility corridor. Migration policies will also play a role in shaping future migration trends, as migration flows are subject to EU destination countries’ applying restrictive migration policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Grieveson & Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara, 2021. "Potential Mobility from Africa, Middle East and EU Neighbouring Countries to Europe," wiiw Working Papers 199, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/potential-mobility-from-africa-middle-east-and-eu-neighbouring-countries-to-europe-dlp-5807.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quentin Wodon & Andrea Liverani & George Joseph & Nathalie Bougnoux, 2014. "Climate Change and Migration : Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18929.
    2. Helmut Hofer & Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara & Philip Schuster & Gerlinde Titelbach & Hermine Vidovic, 2013. "Auswirkungen der Arbeitsmarktöffnung am 1. Jänner 2014 auf den Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsstandort Österreich," wiiw Research Reports in German language 2013-10, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Jakub Bijak & George Disney & Allan M. Findlay & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W.F. Smith & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2019. "Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 470-487, August.
    4. Isilda Mara & Hermine Vidovic, 2015. "Free Movement of Workers, Transitional Arrangements and Potential Mobility from Croatia," wiiw Research Reports 402, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Atanu Sengupta & Sanjoy De, 2020. "Review of Literature," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: Assessing Performance of Banks in India Fifty Years After Nationalization, chapter 0, pages 15-30, Springer.
    6. Gordon Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2016. "Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 57-82, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konstantin Boss & Andre Groeger & Tobias Heidland & Finja Krueger & Conghan Zheng, 2023. "Forecasting Bilateral Refugee Flows with High-dimensional Data and Machine Learning Techniques," Working Papers 1387, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara, 2021. "Migration from Africa, the Middle East and European Neighbouring Countries to the EU: An Augmented Gravity Modelling Approach," wiiw Working Papers 198, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Heidland, Tobias & Jannsen, Nils & Groll, Dominik & Kalweit, René & Boockmann, Bernhard, 2021. "Analyse und Prognose von Migrationsbewegungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Cristina Blasi Casagran & Colleen Boland & Elena Sánchez-Montijano & Eva Vilà Sanchez, 2021. "The Role of Emerging Predictive IT Tools in Effective Migration Governance," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 133-145.
    6. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    7. He Tingting, 2021. "Comparing Money and Time Donation: What Do Experiments Tell Us?," Marketing of Scientific and Research Organizations, Sciendo, vol. 41(3), pages 65-94, September.
    8. Alberto Cerezo-Narváez & Andrés Pastor-Fernández & Manuel Otero-Mateo & Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez, 2022. "The Influence of Knowledge on Managing Risk for the Success in Complex Construction Projects: The IPMA Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-30, August.
    9. Rafidah Md Noor & Nadia Bella Gustiani Rasyidi & Tarak Nandy & Raenu Kolandaisamy, 2020. "Campus Shuttle Bus Route Optimization Using Machine Learning Predictive Analysis: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, December.
    10. Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric, 2022. "Does capital-based regulation affect bank pricing policy?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 135-167, April.
    11. Giacomo Battiston, 2022. "Rescue on Stage: Border Enforcement and Public Attention in the Mediterranean Sea," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0292, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    12. Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi & Rubayyat Hashmi & Sarh Almubark & Ameerah M. N. Qattan & Mohammad Habibullah Pulok, 2020. "Socioeconomic Inequalities in Uptake of Breast Cancer Screening among Saudi Women: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of a National Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-13, March.
    13. Claudio Deiana & Ludovica Giua & Roberto Nisticò, 2021. "Getting Off on the Wrong Foot: The Long-Term Effects of Missing a Large-Scale Amnesty for Immigrant Workers," CSEF Working Papers 625, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    14. Ortega, José Luis, 2021. "How do media mention research papers? Structural analysis of blogs and news networks using citation coupling," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3).
    15. Giovanni Peri & Reem Zaiour, 2023. "Changes in international immigration and internal native mobility after COVID-19 in the USA," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2389-2428, October.
    16. Claudio Deiana & Vikram Maheshri & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2024. "Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 335-365, May.
    17. Marion Borderon & Patrick Sakdapolrak & Raya Muttarak & Endale Kebede & Raffaella Pagogna & Eva Sporer, 2019. "Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa: A systematic review of empirical evidence," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(18), pages 491-544.
    18. Stefano Fusaro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2018. "“The Impact of Immigration on Native Employment: Evidence from Italy”," AQR Working Papers 201811, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2018.
    19. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2020. "Do Processing Times Affect the Distribution of Asylum Seekers across Europe?," IZA Discussion Papers 13018, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Pham, Hanh Song Thi & Petersen, Bent, 2021. "The bargaining power, value capture, and export performance of Vietnamese manufacturers in global value chains," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Migration; forecasting; scenario; gravity model; EU; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Customer service (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wiiwwat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.