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Prospects for Further (South-) Eastern EU Enlargement: from Divergence to Convergence?

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Gligorov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Mario Holzner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Michael Landesmann

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

This paper looks at the experience of South East Europe which -- for the purposes of this paper -- includes the former states of Yugoslavia except for Slovenia (i.e. Croatia, Serbia-Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Macedonia), Albania, and the two EU candidate countries, Bulgaria and Romania. For all these economies, accession to the EU will be the overriding driving force of the policy-making agenda for the foreseeable future, albeit with widely different time horizons in the individual economies. In Part One we describe the South East European (SEE) 'region' as one which has over the 1990s significantly 'fallen behind' in the process of economic development relative to the group of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies which will join the EU in 2004. While developments are somewhat heterogeneous, there is, in particular, an abysmal employment record which has not even started to turn around, as well as an extremely bad productivity and export performance. In Part Two, we discuss in greater detail the conditions required to move towards a sustained growth and catching-up process. We analyse the problematic states of transition in some of the SEE economies as well as the basic disequilibria (fiscal, external, labour markets) which need to be resolved for sustained development to take place. The prospects of making up for the lost decade and dealing with the unresolved disequilibria will be a crucial issue in evaluating the prospects of EU accession some time in the future. We discuss the stumbling blocks both from the SEE side and the EU side in developing a clear perspective of integration with the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Gligorov & Mario Holzner & Michael Landesmann, 2003. "Prospects for Further (South-) Eastern EU Enlargement: from Divergence to Convergence?," wiiw Research Reports 296, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:296
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Landesmann, 2000. "Structural Change in the Transition Economies, 1989 to 1999," wiiw Research Reports 269, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Albania: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/064, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    4. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    5. Edward Christie, 2001. "Potential Trade in Southeast Europe: A Gravity Model Approach," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 11, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Michael A. Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2002. "Evolving Competitiveness of CEEC’s in an Enlarged Europe," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(1), pages 23-88, January-F.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Knogler & Volkhart Vincentz, 2004. "EU-Erweiterung : Die wirtschaftliche Beitrittsfähigkeit der Balkanländer," Working Papers 249, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    2. Tausch, Arno, 2009. "Ist die Globalisierung fit für das soziale Europa? [Is Globalization fit for Social Europe?]," MPRA Paper 14264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:45:y:2007:i::p:611-632 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Maria Paula Fontoura & Nuno Crespo, 2004. "Integration of CEECs into EU Markets: Structural Change and Convergence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2004/15, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Vasily Astrov & Edward Christie & Vladimir Gligorov & Mario Holzner, 2004. "Monthly Report 5/2004," wiiw Monthly Reports 2004-05, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Vladimir Gligorov, 2003. "Serbia and Montenegro: Transition with Organized Crime," wiiw Country Profile 19, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Edward Christie & Mario Holzner, 2005. "Household Tax Compliance in Albania," wiiw Research Reports 316, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Edward Christie & Mario Holzner, 2004. "Household Tax Compliance and the Shadow Economy in Central and Southeastern Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 38, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    South East Europe; Balkan economies; convergence; EU enlargement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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