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Die manisch-depressiven Preisschwankungen auf den Finanzmärkten – wie macht das die "unsichtbare Hand"?

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Der Zeithorizont von Transaktionen auf spekulativen Märkten wie jenen für Aktien oder Devisen ist zumeist extrem kurz. Gleichzeitig entwickeln sich Aktien- und Wechselkurse in mehrjährigen Trends nach oben bzw. unten ("bull and bear markets"). Das Paper untersucht am Beispiel des Dollar-Euro-Wechselkurses, auf welche Weise sich kurzfristige Kursbewegungen zu längerfristigen Trends akkumulieren. Demnach schwanken spekulative Preise um "underlying trends". Das Phänomen des "trending" wiederholt sich auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen. Längerfristige Trends ergeben sich aus der Akkumulation von Kursschüben auf Basis von Tagesdaten, welche über mehrere Jahre in eine Richtung länger dauern als in die Gegenrichtung. Die Abfolge dieser Trends ergibt das typische Muster der langfristigen Dynamik spekulativer Preise: Sie schwanken in irregulären Zyklen um den Bereich des realwirtschaftlichen Gleichgewichts ohne eine Tendenz, zu diesem Gleichgewicht zu konvergieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Die manisch-depressiven Preisschwankungen auf den Finanzmärkten – wie macht das die "unsichtbare Hand"?," WIFO Working Papers 305, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2007:i:305
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Silke Tober & Achim Truger, 2012. "Den Bann durchbrechen - Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen 2012," IMK Report 70-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    Keywords

    Finanzmärkte; Handelstechniken; Wechselkursdynamik;
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