IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wfo/wstudy/34919.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Trading Practices and Price Dynamics in Commodity Markets and the Stabilising Effects of a Transaction Tax

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Movements of commodity prices like the prices of crude oil, corn, wheat and rice are to a substantial extent lengthened and strengthened by speculation in the respective futures markets. In particular the widespread use of technical trading systems reinforces the trending behaviour of commodity prices. The impact of these trading practices on price overshooting was particularly pronounced during the recent commodity price boom. These conclusions can be derived from the performance of 1,092 trading systems in the futures markets for crude oil, corn, wheat and rice between 1989 and mid-2008 as well as from the impact of the aggregate trading behaviour of these models on the simultaneous and subsequent price movements. It is highly plausible that a financial transaction tax would dampen the volatility of commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Trading Practices and Price Dynamics in Commodity Markets and the Stabilising Effects of a Transaction Tax," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34919, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:34919
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/34919
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, P H Kevin & Osler, Carol L, 1999. "Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-Rate Forecasts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 636-661, October.
    2. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    3. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2005. "The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange:Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 519-540, April.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306.
    5. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    6. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    7. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2004. "The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules In Us Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19011, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    8. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    9. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    10. Paul Davidson, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 110-118.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    12. Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January.
    13. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    14. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    15. Harry Huizinga, 2002. "A European VAT on financial services? [‘Taxation of financial services under a VAT’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 497-534.
    16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
    18. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
    19. Carol L. Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68.
    20. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    21. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    22. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
    23. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
    24. Stephan Schulmeister & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger & Oliver Picek, 2008. "A General Financial Transaction Tax. Motives, Revenues, Feasibility and Effects," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31819.
    25. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
    26. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    27. Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H. & Cahan, Jared M., 2008. "Can commodity futures be profitably traded with quantitative market timing strategies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1810-1819, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2014. "A General Financial Transactions Tax. Motives, Effects and Implementation According to the Proposal of the European Commission," WIFO Working Papers 461, WIFO.
    2. Staritz, Cornelia & Küblböck, Karin, 2013. "Re-regulation of commodity derivative markets: Critical assessment of current reform proposals in the EU and the US," Working Papers 45, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Technical Trading and Commodity Price Fluctuations," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45238.
    4. Filip Novotný, 2012. "The Link Between the Brent Crude Oil Price and the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(2), pages 220-232.
    5. Stefan Ederer & Christine Heumesser & Cornelia Staritz, 2016. "Financialization and commodity prices -- an empirical analysis for coffee, cotton, wheat and oil," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 462-487, July.
    6. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2015. "Impact of Commodities Transaction Tax on Indian Commodity Futures," MPRA Paper 63677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Swamy Perumandla & Padma Kurisetti, 2021. "Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT): Nature of Correlation Dynamics and Volatility Linkages Between Indian Commodity and Equity Markets," International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management (IJABIM), IGI Global, vol. 12(2), pages 16-36, April.
    8. Stephan Schulmeister, 2010. "Langsame Belebung der weltweiten Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2014," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 83(1), pages 37-45, January.
    9. Troester, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "Fundamentals or financialisation of commodity markets: What determines recent wheat prices?," Working Papers 43, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    10. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Die neue Weltwirtschaftskrise - Ursachen, Folgen, Gegenstrategien," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 106, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Eine generelle Finanztransaktionssteuer. Konzept, Begründung, Auswirkungen," WIFO Working Papers 352, WIFO.
    12. Stephan Schulmeister, 2011. "Implementation of a General Financial Transactions Tax," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41992.
    13. Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) (ed.), 2015. "Österreichische Entwicklungspolitik 2015. Rohstoffe und Entwicklung," Austrian Development Policy Report, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE), number 268194.
    14. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "The Financial Crisis as an Overshooting Phenomenon," WIFO Working Papers 336, WIFO.
    15. Ederer, Stefan & Heumesser, Christine & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "The role of fundamentals and financialisation in recent commodity price developments: An empirical analysis for wheat, coffee, cotton, and oil," Working Papers 42, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    16. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37582.
    17. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Finanzmarktkrise als Phänomen des Überschießens auf den Aktienmärkten. Eine theoretische Analyse," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(12), pages 933-941, December.
    18. Staritz, Cornelia, 2012. "Financial markets and the commodity price boom: Causes and implications for developing countries," Working Papers 30, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Technical Trading and Commodity Price Fluctuations," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45238.
    2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37582.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    5. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    6. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    7. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Aggregate trading behaviour of technical models and the yen/dollar exchange rate 1976-2007," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 270-279, August.
    8. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.
    9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Technical Analysis and Exchange Rate Dynamics," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25857.
    12. Raquel Almeida Ramos & Federico Bassi & Dany Lang, 2020. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def090, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    13. Stephan Schulmeister, 2014. "A General Financial Transactions Tax. Motives, Effects and Implementation According to the Proposal of the European Commission," WIFO Working Papers 461, WIFO.
    14. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange - The Workhorse Gains Further Ground," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-278, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    15. Stephan Schulmeister & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger & Oliver Picek, 2008. "A General Financial Transaction Tax. Motives, Revenues, Feasibility and Effects," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31819.
    16. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    17. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
    18. Frömmel, Michael & Lampaert, Kevin, 2016. "Does frequency matter for intraday technical trading?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 177-183.
    19. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 467-488, April.
    20. Stephan Schulmeister, 2001. "Profitability and Price Effects of Technical Currency Trading," WIFO Working Papers 140, WIFO.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:34919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.