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Pandemic Climate Mitigation, and Reshoring : Impacts of a Changing Global Economy on Trade, Incomes,and Poverty

Author

Listed:
  • Chepeliev,Maksym
  • Maliszewska,Maryla
  • Osorio-Rodarte,Israel
  • Seara E Pereira,Maria Filipa
  • Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique

Abstract

The resilience of global value chains has been put to the test by the COVID-19 pandemic, extremeweather events, and trade tensions spurred by growing economic nationalism and protectionism. Shocks in productionand trade can be transmitted from one country to another by global value chains, although they can also help to lessenthe blow of a domestic shock, such as a lockdown, and drive economic recovery. What shocks to global value chains shouldbe anticipated in the coming years Is it possible to design policies that can enhance resilience to trade shocks indeveloping countries without endangering growth This paper explores simulations from the ENVISAGE global computablegeneral equilibrium model to enhance understanding of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 and the policyresponses it engenders in developing countries. The paperassesses the likely impacts of measures designed to reshore production and reduce reliance on imports. It also evaluatesother key factors shaping the global economy, including stylized scenarios to capture the essential elements ofpolicies to achieve carbon emission reductions that will have an impact on trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Chepeliev,Maksym & Maliszewska,Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Seara E Pereira,Maria Filipa & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique, 2022. "Pandemic Climate Mitigation, and Reshoring : Impacts of a Changing Global Economy on Trade, Incomes,and Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9955, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9955
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chepeliev, Maksym & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2021. "Distributional impacts of carbon pricing policies under the Paris Agreement: Inter and intra-regional perspectives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2020. "Covid-19 Shocking Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 8572, CESifo.
    3. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33044.
    4. Peters, Glen P., 2008. "From production-based to consumption-based national emission inventories," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 13-23, March.
    5. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    6. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
    7. Evdokia Moïsé & Silvia Sorescu, 2013. "Trade Facilitation Indicators: The Potential Impact of Trade Facilitation on Developing Countries' Trade," OECD Trade Policy Papers 144, OECD Publishing.
    8. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748.
    9. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Borin & Gianmarco Cariola & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Michele Mancini & Tullia Padellini & Ludovic Panon & Enrico Sette, 2023. "Inputs in geopolitical distress: a risk assessment based on micro data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 819, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Yigit Kazancoglu & Cisem Lafci & Yalcin Berberoglu & Arvind Upadhyay & Luis Rocha-Lona & Vikas Kumar, 2024. "The effects of globalization on supply chain resilience: outsourcing techniques as interventionism, protectionism, and regionalization strategies," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 505-522, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade and Trade Rules; Transport Services; Inequality; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases;
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