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Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability

Author

Listed:
  • Ahuja, Amrita

    (Douglas B. Marshall Jr. Family Foundation)

  • Athey, Susan

    (Stanford Graduate School of Business)

  • Baker, Arthur

    (University of Chicago Development Innovation Lab)

  • Budish, Eric

    (University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

  • Camilo Castillo, Juan

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Glennerster, Rachel

    (FCDO, UK)

  • Kominers, Scott Duke

    (Harvard Business School)

  • Kremer, Michael

    (University of Chicago)

  • Lee, Jean

    (World Bank)

  • Prendergast, Canice

    (Chicago Booth School)

  • Snyder, Christopher M.

    (Dartmouth College)

  • Tabarrok, Alex

    (George Mason University)

  • Tan, Brandon Joel

    (Harvard University)

  • Wiecek, Witold

    (WAW Statistical Consulting)

Abstract

Vaccinating the world’s population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the problem faced by governments in determining the scale and structure of procurement for vaccines. We analyze alternative approaches to procurement, arguing that buyers should directly fund manufacturing capacity and shoulder most of the risk of failure, while maintaining some direct incentives for speed. We analyzed the optimal portfolio of vaccine investments for countries with different characteristics as well as the implications for international cooperation. Our analysis, considered in light of the experience of 2020, suggests lessons for future pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahuja, Amrita & Athey, Susan & Baker, Arthur & Budish, Eric & Camilo Castillo, Juan & Glennerster, Rachel & Kominers, Scott Duke & Kremer, Michael & Lee, Jean & Prendergast, Canice & Snyder, Christoph, 2021. "Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability," Research Papers 3966, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:3966
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Kremer & Jonathan Levin & Christopher M. Snyder, 2020. "Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 269-273, May.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748.
    3. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33044.
    4. Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.
    5. Lars Bo Jeppesen & Karim R. Lakhani, 2010. "Marginality and Problem-Solving Effectiveness in Broadcast Search," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(5), pages 1016-1033, October.
    6. Michael Kremer, 2021. "Vaccines and the Pandemic," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Evenett,Simon J. & Hoekman,Bernard M. & Rocha,Nadia & Ruta,Michele, 2021. "The Covid-19 Vaccine Production Club : Will Value Chains Temper Nationalism?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9565, The World Bank.
    2. Snyder, Christopher M. & Hoyt, Kendall & Gouglas, Dimitrios, 2023. "An optimal mechanism to fund the development of vaccines against emerging epidemics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Ockenfels Axel, 2021. "Marktdesign für eine resiliente Impfstoff-produktion," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 259-269, September.
    4. Veronika Grimm & Franziska K. Lembcke & Milena Schwarz, 2021. "Impffortschritt in Deutschland und der Welt: Chancen und Risiken [Opportunities and Risks of Vaccination Progress]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(4), pages 266-275, April.
    5. Agarwal, Ruchir & Gaule, Patrick, 2022. "What drives innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Kyle, Margaret K., 2022. "Incentives for pharmaceutical innovation: What’s working, what’s lacking," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Scott Duke Kominers & Alex Tabarrok, 2022. "Vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic: lessons from failure and success," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 719-741.
    8. Nikhil Agarwal & Andrew Komo & Chetan A. Patel & Parag A. Pathak & M. Utku Ünver, 2021. "The Trade-off Between Prioritization and Vaccination Speed Depends on Mitigation Measures," NBER Working Papers 28519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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