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Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030

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  • Jafino,Bramka Arga
  • Walsh,Brian James
  • Rozenberg,Julie
  • Hallegatte,Stephane

Abstract

Thousands of scenarios are used to provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate changeon extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of people falling into poverty due to climate change is between32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These results are commensurate with available estimates for the globalpoverty increase due to COVID-19. Socioeconomic drivers play a major role: optimistic baseline scenarios (rapid andinclusive growth with universal access to basic services in 2030) halve poverty impacts compared with the pessimisticbaselines. Health impacts (malaria, diarrhea, and stunting) and the effect of food prices are responsible for most ofthe impact. The effect of food prices is the most important factor in Sub-Saharan Africa, while health effects, naturaldisasters, and food prices are all important in South Asia. These results suggest that accelerated action to boostresilience is urgent, and the COVID-19 recovery packages offer opportunities to do so.

Suggested Citation

  • Jafino,Bramka Arga & Walsh,Brian James & Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2020. "Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9417, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9417
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    2. Uchechukwu Jarrett & Yvonne Tackie, 2024. "Re‐examining the effect of heat and water stress on agricultural output growth: How is Sub‐Saharan Africa different?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(3), pages 515-530, May.
    3. Ida Brzezinska & Paul Jasper, 2024. "The Negative Effect of Temperature Variability on Household Wealth in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 417-452, November.
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    6. Hoang, Anh Tuan & Sandro Nižetić, & Olcer, Aykut I. & Ong, Hwai Chyuan & Chen, Wei-Hsin & Chong, Cheng Tung & Thomas, Sabu & Bandh, Suhaib A. & Nguyen, Xuan Phuong, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy system and the shift progress to renewable energy: Opportunities, challenges, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Rachid Muleia & Genito Maúre & Américo José & Plácida Maholela & Isaac Akpor Adjei & Md. Rezaul Karim & Sónia Trigo & Waltaji Kutane & Osvaldo Inlamea & Lawrence N. Kazembe & Tatiana Marrufo, 2024. "Assessing the Vulnerability and Adaptation Needs of Mozambique’s Health Sector to Climate: A Comprehensive Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(5), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Khanh Duong & Eoin Flaherty, 2023. "Does growth reduce poverty? The mediating role of carbon emissions and income inequality," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3309-3334, October.
    9. Delbridge, Victoria & Harman, Oliver & Oliveira Cunha, Juliana & Venables, Anthony J., 2022. "Sustainable urbanisation in developing countries: cities as places to innovate, trade, and work," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118027, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    Keywords

    Inequality; Science of Climate Change; Climate Change and Health; Climate Change and Environment; Climate Change Impacts; Social Aspects of Climate Change; Health Care Services Industry;
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