IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/909.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Parallel markets, the foreign exchange auction, and exchange rate unification in Zambia

Author

Listed:
  • Aron, Janine
  • Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.

Abstract

A large thriving parallel market for foreign exchange has coexisted with a rich menu of official exchange rate policies aimed at achieving a more flexible exchange rate and price system as well as financial and trade liberalization. Despite aggresive policies in these areas, particularly for the exchange rate, the black market premium (defined as the ratio of the black market rate to the official rate) remains high. The authors examine the origins of the parallel market, the statistical properties of the parallel premium, and the shocks and macroeconomic policy changes that influence its evolution. Using annual data, they specify and estimate and eclectic error-correction model for the premium. They find that the large parallel market might have caused problems in macroeconomic management and economic reform. Also, the findings show that foreign inflation and depreciation of the black market rate (in a cost-push manner) directly increases domestic inflation. The authors conclude that exchange rate reform without fiscal reform may be futile and that it is important to liberalize major trade and financial markets in such a way as to compress the parallel market and prevent the premium from serving as a major signal to the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aron, Janine & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 1992. "Parallel markets, the foreign exchange auction, and exchange rate unification in Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 909, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:909
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1992/05/01/000009265_3961003010659/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garnaut, Ross & Clunies-Ross, Anthony, 1983. "Taxation of Mineral Rents," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284543.
    2. Bates, Robert H & Collier, Paul, 1995. "The Politics and Economics of Policy Reform in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 4(1), pages 115-143, May.
    3. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1981. "Alternative theories of illegal trade : Economic consequences and statistical detection," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 117(3), pages 409-427, September.
    4. Donogh C. McDonald, 1985. "Trade Data Discrepancies and the Incentive to Smuggle: An Empirical Analysis (Divergences dans les données sur les échanges commerciaux et attrait de la contrebande: analyse empirique) (Discrepancia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 668-692, December.
    5. Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio SimÅes, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1987. "On the costs of temporary policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 245-261, October.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Pinto, Brian, 1988. "Black market premia, exchange rate unification, and inflation in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 37, The World Bank.
    9. Elbadawi, I.A., 1989. "Terms Of Trade, Commercial Policy, And The Black Market For Foreign Exchange: An Empirical Model Of Real Exchange Rate Determination," Papers 570, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "The political economy of fiscal policy and inflation in developing countries : an empirical analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 703, The World Bank.
    11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1986. "Special Exchange Rates for Capital Account Transactions," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 1(1), pages 3-33, September.
    12. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and the World Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sach89-3, January.
    13. Sheikh, Munir A, 1974. "Underinvoicing of Imports in Pakistan," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 36(4), pages 287-296, November.
    14. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1989. "Macroeconomic policies for structural adjustment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 247, The World Bank.
    15. Saul Lizondo, Jose, 1987. "Unification of dual exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 57-77, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Howard White, 1995. "Import Support Aid: Experiences from Tanzania and Zambia," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 41-64, March.
    2. Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla, 2017. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Parallel Market For Foreign Exchange in Sudan," Working Papers 1155, Economic Research Forum, revised 11 2017.
    3. Aron, Janine & Elbadawi, Ibrahim, 1994. "A typology of foreign exchange auction markets in sub-Saharan Africa : dynamic models for auction exchange rates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1396, The World Bank.
    4. Simplice Asongu, 2015. "Liberalisation and Financial Sector Competition: A Critical Contribution to the Empirics with an African Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 425-451, September.
    5. Njindan Iyke , Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2015. "A re-examination of long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis: the case of two Southern African countries," Working Papers 18980, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    6. Aron, Janine & Elbadawi, Ibrahim, 1994. "A typology of foreign auction markets in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1395, The World Bank.
    7. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    8. Alshubiri, Faris, 2021. "Financial deepening indicators and income inequality of OECD and ASIAN countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    9. Kiguel, Miguel A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1994. "Parallel exchange rates in developing countries : lessons from eight case studies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1265, The World Bank.
    10. Mr. Nils O Maehle & Ms. Haimanot Teferra & Armine Khachatryan, 2013. "Exchange Rate Liberalization in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries Successes, Failures, and Lessons," IMF Working Papers 2013/032, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Zambia," Working Papers in Economics 40, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    12. Collier P., 1993. "Macroeconomic policies: an analytic review based on African experience," ILO Working Papers 992966493402676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Teferi, Mequanite, 2009. "Aid and the Dutch-Disease in Ethiopia," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 1-99, February.
    14. Morris, Stephen, 1995. "Inflation dynamics and the parallel market for foreign exchange," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 295-316, April.
    15. Howard White, 2005. "Dollars, dialogue and development: an evaluation of Swedish program aid," Development and Comp Systems 0511012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Themba G. Chirwa & N.M. Odhiambo, 2015. "The Dynamics of the Real Sector Growth in Zambia," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(3), pages 217-235, September.
    17. Stuart John Barton, 2016. "Policy Signals and Market Responses," Palgrave Studies in the History of Finance, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-39098-1, December.
    18. Ndlela, Thandinkosi, 2010. "Implications of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries: theory, empirical evidence and application to growth performance in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 32710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:ilo:ilowps:296649 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    2. Ogbulu, Onyemachi Maxwell & Torbira, Lezaasi Lenee, 2017. "Transmission Effect of the Interaction between Parallel and Official Foreign Exchange Markets in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(6), pages 76-90, 06-2017.
    3. Onour, Ibrahim A, 2000. "Unification of Dual Foreign Exchange Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 171-184.
    4. Kargbo, Joseph M., 2003. "Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1673-1685, October.
    5. Patrick K. Asea & Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Non-monotonic long memory dynamics in black-market premia," Working Papers 1995-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2009. "Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 489-507, December.
    7. Onour, Ibrahim, 2010. "South Sudan Referundum: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Post-Secession Scenario," MPRA Paper 29897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rafat MAHMOOD & Eatzaz AHMAD, 2015. "Measurement Of Import Smuggling In Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 135-159.
    9. Onour, Ibrahim, 2011. "Financial stability in small open economy under political uncertainty," MPRA Paper 29883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kiguel, Miguel A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1994. "Parallel exchange rates in developing countries : lessons from eight case studies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1265, The World Bank.
    11. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    12. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 1992. "Real overvaluation, terms of trade shocks, and the cost to agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 831, The World Bank.
    13. Mohammad Farhad & Michael Jetter & Abu Siddique & Andrew Williams, 2018. "Misreported Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7150, CESifo.
    14. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3481-3490.
    15. Haluk Erlat & Guzin Erlat, 1998. "Permanent and transitory shocks on real and nominal exchange rates in Turkey during the post-1980 period," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 379-396, December.
    16. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
    17. Ndlela, Thandinkosi, 2010. "Implications of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries: theory, empirical evidence and application to growth performance in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 32710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
    19. Helmut Reisen, 1991. "Dette publique, compétitivité extérieure et discipline budgétaire dans les pays en développement," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 32(126), pages 317-342.
    20. Kam Chan & Louis Cheng & Ming-Shiun Pan, 1997. "Market efficiency and cointegration: Some evidence in Pacific-Basin black exchange markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 21(1), pages 25-31, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.