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The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade

Author

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  • McKibbin, Warwick J.
  • Stoeckel, Andrew

Abstract

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • McKibbin, Warwick J. & Stoeckel, Andrew, 2009. "The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5134, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    2. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
    3. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2009. "Modelling the global financial crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(4), pages 581-607, Winter.
    3. Vincent Chatellier & Thierry Pouch, 2021. "Agri-food trade in the EU and France between 2000 and 2020 [Le commerce agroalimentaire de l'UE-27 et de la France entre 2000 et 2020]," Post-Print hal-03514990, HAL.
    4. Natalya Ketenci, 2014. "Trade Elasticities, Commodity Prices, and the Global Financial Crisis," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(3), pages 233-256, September.
    5. Rob Gregory & Christian Henn & Brad Mcdonald & Mika Saito, 2010. "Trade And The Crisis: Protect Or Recover," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 165-181.
    6. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    7. Justin Yifu Lin & Will Martin, 2010. "The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 133-144, November.
    8. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Global Monitoring Report 2010 : The MDGs after the Crisis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2444.
    9. Janine Dixon, 2017. "The Impact on Australia of Trump's 45 per cent Tariff on Chinese Imports," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(3), pages 266-274, September.
    10. Gary Hawke, 2011. "Financial Crises And Knowledge, Historical And Analytical," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(1), pages 1-21, March.
    11. Čerović Slobodan Č & Pepić Marina & Petrović Pero & Čerović Stanislav Č, 2014. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on World Trade," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 52(1), pages 13-32, March.
    12. Lin, Justin Yifu & Martin, William J., 2009. "The Financial Crisis and Its Impact on the Global Agricultural Landscape," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 53208, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The effect of global financial crisis on trade elasticities: Evidence from BRIICS countries and Turkey," MPRA Paper 54659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Adam Cagliarini & Warwick McKibbin, 2010. "Global Relative Price Shocks: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Banks&Banking Reform; Labor Policies;
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