IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/rba/rbaacv/acv2009-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Global Relative Price Shocks: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies

In: Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Cagliarini

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Warwick McKibbin

    (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, The Australian National University)

Abstract

We use the multi-sector and multi-country G-Cubed model to explore the potential role of three major shocks – to productivity, risk premia and US monetary policy – to explain the large movements in relative prices between 2002 and 2008. We find that productivity shocks were major drivers of relative price movements, while shocks to risk premia and US monetary policy contributed temporarily to some of the relative price dispersions we observe in the data. The effect of US monetary policy shocks on relative prices was most pronounced in countries that fix their currency to the US dollar. Those countries that float were largely shielded from these effects. We conclude that the shocks we consider cannot fully capture the magnitude of the relative price movements over this period, suggesting that other driving forces could also be responsible, including those outside of the model.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Cagliarini & Warwick McKibbin, 2010. "Global Relative Price Shocks: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacv:acv2009-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2009/pdf/cagliarini-mckibbin.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Stoeckel, Andrew, 2009. "The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5134, The World Bank.
    2. McKibbin, Warwick J & Vines, David, 2000. "Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 106-137, Winter.
    3. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. "A simple approach to international monetary policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 177-196, June.
    5. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson, 1991. "Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies: A Game-Theoretic Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031787, December.
    6. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    7. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 453-474, November.
    2. Peter Tulip, 2014. "The Effect of the Mining Boom on the Australian Economy," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 17-22, December.
    3. Valdivia, Daney, 2015. "Handbook on DSGE models: some useful tips in modeling a DSGE models," MPRA Paper 61347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    5. Warwick J McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2018. "Modelling a complex world: improving macro-models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 329-347.
    6. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    7. Babatunde .Wasiu. ADEOYE & Olufemi Muibi SAIBU, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 544-562, April.
    8. Mansur, Alfan, 2016. "The Impact of a Loss of Confidence in Emerging Market Economies to the World Economy: A Simulation with the G-Cubed Model," MPRA Paper 93870, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Nov 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2009. "Modelling the global financial crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(4), pages 581-607, Winter.
    2. Vlieghe, Gertjan W, 2007. "Imperfect credit markets: implications for monetary policy," MPRA Paper 12957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Siami-Namini, Sima & Hudson, Darren & Trindade, A. Alexandre & Lyford, Conrad, 2018. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266719, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    6. Warwick J. McKibbin & Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Consequences of China's WTO Accession for Its Neighbors," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(2), pages 1-38.
    7. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Mar), pages 43-56.
    8. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
    9. Anand, Rahul & Prasad, Eswar, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation under Incomplete Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 5137, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Hubert Kempf & Leopold von Thadden, 2007. "On policy interactions among nations: when do cooperation and commitment matter ?," 2007 Meeting Papers 801, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Tobias Rühl, 2015. "Taylor rules revisited: ECB and Bundesbank in comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 951-967, May.
    12. D'Amato, Marcello & Martina, Riccardo, 2005. "Credibility and commitment of monetary policy in open economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 872-902, December.
    13. Stéphane Auray & Paul Gomme & Shen Guo, 2013. "Nominal Rigidities, Monetary Policy and Pigou Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 455-473, May.
    14. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Bahl, Ojasvita & Ghate, Chetan & Mallick, Debdulal, 2020. "Redistributive Policy Shocks and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents," MPRA Paper 101651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    17. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2020. "Should a central bank react to food inflation? Evidence from an estimated model for Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 221-234.
    18. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "The Extreme Risk Problem for Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 74-91, Winter.
    20. Giri, Federico & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2019. "Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 42-58.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    relative price shocks; productivity; risk premia; monetary policy; developing economies; G-Cubed; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacv:acv2009-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.