IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emeeco/v6y2014i3p233-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade Elasticities, Commodity Prices, and the Global Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Natalya Ketenci

Abstract

The effect of the global financial crisis on the international trade patterns of developed countries has been one of the main focuses of recent scholarship. However, world trade depends evermore on emerging markets increases every day. Therefore, it is important to study the level of the negative effect of the crisis on emerging economies and the level of their recovery potential. This paper empirically studies the effects of the financial crisis on trade elasticities of BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa) countries and Turkey. The imperfect substitute model (Goldstein & Khan, 1985) for the export and import demand functions is used. Additionally, the extended model is estimated where commodity price index is employed. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to test the cointegration relationships between exports and imports and their determinants, and in order to estimate the export and import elasticities in the countries under examination. The empirical results provide enough evidence to conclude that changes in the exchange rate and in commodity prices did not play significant role in export and import demand functions before and after the global financial crisis. However, foreign and domestic incomes are found highly significant and elastic in export and import demand functions, respectively. It is found as well that the global financial crisis had increasing effect on export and import responsiveness to foreign and domestic incomes respectively, except for Turkey and Brazil in the export demand function and South Africa in the import demand function.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalya Ketenci, 2014. "Trade Elasticities, Commodity Prices, and the Global Financial Crisis," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(3), pages 233-256, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:233-256
    DOI: 10.1177/0974910114540719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0974910114540719
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0974910114540719?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
    2. Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Trade in services: The elasticity approach for the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 86596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    4. Irandoust, Manuchehr & Ekblad, Kristin & Parmler, Johan, 2006. "Bilateral trade flows and exchange rate sensitivity: Evidence from likelihood-based panel cointegration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 170-183, June.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Dooley, Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling-recoupling hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1331-1349, December.
    7. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Ahn, Choong Y. & Lee, Young S. & Yang, Doo Y., 2007. "Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 314-330, April.
    8. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    9. Vieira, Flávio & Haddad, Eduardo, 2011. "A Panel Data Investigation on the Brazilian State Level Export Performance," TD NEREUS 12-2011, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    10. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Stoeckel, Andrew, 2009. "The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5134, The World Bank.
    11. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    12. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Claire Economidou & Gour Gobinda Goswami, 2005. "How sensitive are Britain's inpayments and outpayments to the value of the British pound," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(5), pages 455-467, October.
    14. Bernardina Algieri, 2004. "Price and Income Elasticities of Russian Exports," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 1(2), pages 175-193, December.
    15. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar, 2009. "Structural change in the export demand function for Indonesia: Estimation, analysis and policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 260-271.
    16. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2008. "Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 129-141, June.
    17. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2009. "Elasticities of Turkish Exports and Imports," Working Papers 0906, Izmir University of Economics.
    18. M. Faruk Aydin & Ugur Ciplak & Eray M. Yucel, 2004. "Export Supply and Import Demand Models for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0409, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The effect of global financial crisis on trade elasticities: Evidence from BRIICS countries and Turkey," MPRA Paper 54659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Trade in services: The elasticity approach for the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 86596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2019. "Growth Impacts of Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 226-262, December.
    4. Natalya Ketenci & Idil Uz, 2011. "Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 839-854, May.
    5. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Import elasticities and the external constraint in Mexico," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 363-377, September.
    6. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2020. "Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 20-37.
    7. Onur zdemir, 2019. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to the Income Inequality and Financial Liberalization Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 1-15.
    8. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2018. "Output, renewable and non-renewable energy production, and international trade: Evidence from EU-15 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 995-1002.
    9. Alam, Khalid Mehmood & Li, Xuemei & Baig, Saranjam & Ghanem, Osman & Hanif, Salman, 2021. "Causality between transportation infrastructure and economic development in Pakistan: An ARDL analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Ka Ming Cheng, 2021. "Financial And Insurance Services Trade: Does Exchange Rate Or Income Matter?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 494-509, January.
    11. Ishmael Radikoko & Shadreck A. Mutobo & Mphoeng Mphoeng, 2019. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: The Case of Botswana," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 149-149, December.
    12. Dong Mu & Salman Hanif & Khalid Mehmood Alam & Omer Hanif, 2022. "A Correlative Study of Modern Logistics Industry in Developing Economy and Carbon Emission Using ARDL: A Case of Pakistan," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, February.
    13. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The bilateral trade flows of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1369-1398, December.
    14. Sasa OBRADOVIĆ & Nemanja LOJANICA, 2019. "Export-Led Growth: Evidence from Post-Communist Serbia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 131-145, June.
    15. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    16. Halicioglu, Ferda & Yolac, Sema, 2015. "Testing the impact of unemployment on self-employment: empirical evidence from OECD countries," MPRA Paper 65026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Javed Iqbal & Muhammad Muzammil, 2017. "Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 1-8, June.
    18. Hrushikesh Mallick & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hemachandra Padhan, 2020. "Does globalization exacerbate income inequality in two largest emerging economies? The role of FDI and remittances inflows," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(4), pages 443-480, December.
    19. Jamilov, Rustam & Égert, Balázs, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through and monetary policy asymmetry: A journey into the Caucasian black box," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 57-70.
    20. Oryani, Bahareh & Moridian, Ali & Sarkar, Biswajit & Rezania, Shahabaldin & Kamyab, Hesam & Khan, Muhammad Kamran, 2022. "Assessing the financial rеsоurсе curse hypothesis in Iran: Thе nоvеl dynаmiс АRDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:233-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emergingmarketsforum.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.