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Inflation, External Debt and Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Approach To Consistent Fiscal Policy With An Application to Turkey

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  • Ritu Anand
  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

Abstract

This paper presents and applies an integrated framework to assess the consistency between fiscal deficits and other macroeconomic targets, such as output growth and the rate of inflation. The model centers around the government budget constraint and can be used to either derive the financeable deficit given inflation targets, or to derive an equilibrium inflation rate for which no fiscal adjustment would be necessary. The financeable deficit is defined as the deficit that does not require more financing than is compatible with sustainable external and internal borrowing, and existing targets for inflation and output growth. The model can assess the impact on the relation between fiscal adjustment and sustainable inflation rates of financial sector reforms affecting base money demand, of changes in interest rates paid on foreign and domestic public sector debt, of output growth targets and of exchange rate policy. The analysis furthermore incorporates an approach, due to Cohen ( 1986), to the derivation of a sustainable external debt policy. Finally, the model can also be used to see what happens if the required fiscal adjustment is postponed. We explore two alternatives: one where fiscal adjustment takes place eventually, and one where the inflation tax is used eventually to close any financing gap. The model is applied to an analysis of inflation, external debt and financial sector reform in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Ritu Anand & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1988. "Inflation, External Debt and Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Approach To Consistent Fiscal Policy With An Application to Turkey," NBER Working Papers 2731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Van Wijnbergen, S., 1983. "Interest rate management in LDC's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 433-452, September.
    2. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92.
    4. Arslan, Ismail & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Export Incentives, Exchange Rate Policy and Export Growth in Turkey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 128-133, February.
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    6. Melnick, Rafi & Sokoler, Meir, 1984. "The government's revenue from money creation and the inflationary effects of a decline in the rate of growth of G.N.P," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 225-236, March.
    7. Daniel Cohen, 1987. "External and Domestic Debt Constraints of LDCs: a Theory with a Numerical Application to Brazil and Mexico," International Economic Association Series, in: Ralph C. Bryant & Richard Portes (ed.), Global Macroeconomics: Policy Conflict and Cooperation, chapter 8, pages 279-306, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Anand, Ritu & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Inflation and the Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with an Application to Turkey," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Reynoso, Alejandro, 1989. "Financial Factors in Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 204-209, May.
    2. Nina Budina & Sweder Van Wijnbergen, 2001. "Fiscal deficits, monetary reform and inflation stabilization in romania," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 165-194.
    3. Polackova Brixi, Hana & Shatalov, Sergei & Zlaoui, Leila, 2000. "Managing fiscal risk in Bulgaria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2282, The World Bank.
    4. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2019. "Assessment of EU fiscal rules with a focus on the six and two-pack legislation," Reports 2019, European Fiscal Board.
    5. Salem Kanoun, 2012. "Linkages Between Fiscal Debt Sustainability, Growth And Poverty: An Application To Tunisia," Book Chapters, in: João Sousa Andrade & Marta C. N. Simões & Ivan Stosic & Dejan Eric & Hasan Hanic (ed.), Managing Structural Changes - Trends and Requirements, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 214-249, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    6. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Budina, Nina, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization, Fiscal Deficits, and Public Debt Management in Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 293-309, June.
    7. Rodrik, Dani, 1990. "Premature Liberalization, Incomplete Stabilization: The Ozal Decade in Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Budina, Nina & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2007. "Quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis : a new World Bank tool applied to Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4169, The World Bank.
    9. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Rocha, Robert & Anand, Ritu, 1989. "Inflation, external debt, and financial sector reform : a quantitative approach to consistent fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 261, The World Bank.
    10. Suwareh Darbo & Amandine Nakumuryango, 2018. "Working Paper 305 - Inflation Dynamics In Post-Secession Sudan," Working Paper Series 2432, African Development Bank.
    11. Jane Kiringai, 2002. "Debt and PRSP Conditionality: The Kenya Case," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-54, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Bandiera, Luca & Budina, Nina & Klijn, Michel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2007. "The"how to"of fiscal sustainability : a technical manual for using the fiscal sustainability tool," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4170, The World Bank.
    13. Levent, Korap, 2006. "Seigniorage revenue and Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 20106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Islam, Roumeen & Wetzel, Deborah L., 1991. "The macroeconomics of public sector deficits : the case of Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 672, The World Bank.
    15. Kindy R. Sjahrir, 2018. "Fiscal Constraints in the Financial System Stability Framework for Indonesian Data," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201803, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2018.

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