IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3750.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa : a macroeconomic monitoring framework

Author

Listed:
  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Bayraktar, Nihal
  • Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel
  • El Aynaoui, Karim

Abstract

The authors present an integrated macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of their approach is a macroeconomic model that captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health), the supply side, and poverty. The model is linked through cross-section regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy, and access to safe water. A composite MDG indicator is also calculated. The functioning of the framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in aid and a debt write-off for Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. The authors'approach can serve as the building block of Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current"Poverty Reduction"Strategy Papers.

Suggested Citation

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa : a macroeconomic monitoring framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3750, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3750
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2005/10/11/000016406_20051011124010/Rendered/PDF/wps3750.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
    2. Satya R. Chakravarty, 2003. "A Generalized Human Development Index," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 99-114, February.
    3. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," NBER Working Papers 11657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Mind your P's and Q's : the cost of public investment is not the value of public capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1660, The World Bank.
    5. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, July.
    6. P R Agénor & K C Neanidis, 2006. "Corruption Clubs: The Allocation of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 69, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Stefano Paternostro, 2003. "Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(3), pages 317-347, December.
    8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nabli, Mustapha K. & Yousef, Tarik M., 2005. "Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3661, The World Bank.
    9. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
    10. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    11. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2011. "The Allocation Of Public Expenditure And Economic Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(4), pages 899-931, July.
    12. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Overcoming child malnutrition in developing countries," 2020 vision briefs 64, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca, 2006. "Public infrastructure and growth : new channels and policy implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4064, The World Bank.
    14. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Pro-poor growth : A primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3242, The World Bank.
    16. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2005. "A macroeconomic framework for quantifying growth and poverty reduction strategies in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3506, The World Bank.
    17. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    18. Adam Wagstaff & Mariam Claeson, 2004. "The Millennium Development Goals for Health : Rising to the Challenges," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14954.
    19. Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina & Lutz, Stefan H., 2004. "The contribution of income, social capital, and institutions to human well-being in Africa," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    20. Christophe Hurlin, 2005. "The productivy Effects of Public Capital in Developing Countries," Post-Print halshs-00257440, HAL.
    21. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Overcoming child malnutrition in developing countries: past achievements and future choices," 2020 vision discussion papers 30, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2006. "Big Push versus Absorptive Capacity: How to Reconcile the Two Approaches," Working Papers 200614, CERDI.
    2. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Issouf Samaké, 2009. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid: The Gleneagles Initiative for Benin," IMF Working Papers 2009/115, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca, 2006. "Public infrastructure and growth : new channels and policy implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4064, The World Bank.
    4. Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, 2009. "Linking Fiscal Policy and Growth in PER Reports : An Operational Framework for Low-Income Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 11125, The World Bank Group.
    5. World Bank, 2007. "Niger - Accelerating Growth and Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : Diagnosis and the Policy Agenda," World Bank Publications - Reports 7658, The World Bank Group.
    6. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
    7. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
    8. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2007. "Absorptive Capacity: More Than the Volume of Aid, its Modalities Matter," Working Papers 200702, CERDI.
    9. Lofgren, Hans & Cicowiez, Martin & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina, 2013. "MAMS – A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Developing Country Strategy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 159-276, Elsevier.
    10. Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas & Abdikarim Farah, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Scaled-Up Aid: The Case of Niger," IMF Working Papers 2009/036, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2008. "Foreign aid, growth and poverty: A policy framework for Niger," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 523-539.
    12. Bourguignon, Francois & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina & Lofgren, Hans, 2008. "Aid, service delivery, and the millennium development goals in an economy-wide framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4683, The World Bank.
    13. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe, 2012. "The Human Development Index and an endogenous growth model," EcoMod2012 4365, EcoMod.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Niger: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/070, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Yamin, Mo & Sinkovics, Rudolf R., 2009. "Infrastructure or foreign direct investment?: An examination of the implications of MNE strategy for economic development," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 144-157, April.
    16. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel, 2006. "Linking public investment programs and SPAHD macro models : methodology and application to aid requirements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3944, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. World Bank, 2007. "Niger - Accelerating Growth and Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : Diagnosis and the Policy Agenda," World Bank Publications - Reports 7658, The World Bank Group.
    2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel, 2006. "Linking public investment programs and SPAHD macro models : methodology and application to aid requirements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3944, The World Bank.
    3. Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas & Abdikarim Farah, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Scaled-Up Aid: The Case of Niger," IMF Working Papers 2009/036, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca, 2006. "Public infrastructure and growth : new channels and policy implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4064, The World Bank.
    5. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2013. "Aid Allocation, Growth And Welfare With Productive Public Goods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 103-127, March.
    6. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2008. "Foreign aid, growth and poverty: A policy framework for Niger," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 523-539.
    7. Pierre Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0616, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Clausen, Volker & Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2012. "Aid, spending strategies and productivity effects: A multi-sectoral CGE analysis for Zambia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2254-2268.
    9. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
    10. Nihal BAYRAKTAR & Emmanuel PINTO MOREIRA, 2008. "The Composition of Public Expenditure and Growth: A Small-scale Intertemporal Model for Low-Income Countries," EcoMod2008 23800009, EcoMod.
    11. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2010. "A theory of infrastructure-led development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 932-950, May.
    12. Dmitriy, Skrypnik, 2020. "Инфраструктура И Экономический Рост. «Бюджетный Маневр» В России [Infrastructure and economic growth. "Budgetary maneuver" in Russia]," MPRA Paper 104920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    14. Patrick Guillaumont, 2011. "Aid effectiveness for poverty reduction:macroeconomic overview and emerging issues," CERDI Working papers halshs-00554285, HAL.
    15. Yifang Wan & Yunxian Chen, 2022. "China’s Foreign Aid and Sustainable Growth of Recipient Countries: Mechanism and Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    16. Ugo Gentilini & Patrick Webb, 2005. "How Are We Doing on Poverty and Hunger Reduction?: A New Measure of Country-Level Progress," Working Papers in Food Policy and Nutrition 31, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy.
    17. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2009. "Aid effectiveness for poverty reduction: macroeconomic overview and emerging issues," Working Papers P05, FERDI.
    18. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2006. "Big Push versus Absorptive Capacity: How to Reconcile the Two Approaches," Working Papers 200614, CERDI.
    19. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2006. "A Theory of Infrastructure-led Development," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0640, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    20. Sinha, Aakanksha & McRoy, Ruth G. & Berkman, Barbara & Sutherland, Melissa, 2017. "Drivers of change: Examining the effects of gender equality on child nutrition," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 203-212.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Inequality; Investment and Investment Climate; Achieving Shared Growth;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3750. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.