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Sustaining Poverty Gains : A Vulnerability Map to Guide the Expansion of Social Registries

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Eduardo Barriga Cabanillas
  • Carlos Rodriguez Castelan
  • Emmanuel Skoufias
  • Thomas Bossuroy
  • Paul Andres Corral Rodas

Abstract

Poverty maps are a useful tool for targeting social programs on areas with high concentrations of poverty. However, a static focus on poverty ignores its temporal dimension. Thus, current nonpoor households still face substantial welfare volatility and are at risk of becoming poor in the face of shocks. This paper combines the methods of poverty mapping and vulnerability estimation to create highly disaggregated vulnerability maps. The maps include predictions of the share of chronically poor households (poverty-induced vulnerability)—the focus of traditional poverty maps—and the share of households showing a significant probability of falling into poverty (risk-induced vulnerability). As an application of the method, the paper estimates a vulnerability map for Senegal that provides quotas for the expansion of the social registry. Accounting for the poor and the population at risk of poverty implies, in practice, the expansion of coverage into urban and peri-urban areas that tend to experience lower poverty rates. The inclusion of nonpoor households also serves as a first step toward supporting a dynamic social registry.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Eduardo Barriga Cabanillas & Carlos Rodriguez Castelan & Emmanuel Skoufias & Thomas Bossuroy & Paul Andres Corral Rodas, 2024. "Sustaining Poverty Gains : A Vulnerability Map to Guide the Expansion of Social Registries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10890, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10890
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    References listed on IDEAS

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