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Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in the Drought-Prone Lowlands of Ethiopia

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  • Skoufias,Emmanuel
  • Vinha,Katja Pauliina
  • Beyene,Berhe Mekonnen

Abstract

A forward-looking measure of “vulnerability to poverty†is estimated and a concerted effort is made to understand the sources of vulnerability in the drought-prone lowlands of Ethiopia. Using the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey and the Welfare Monitoring Survey of 2016, the analysis reveals that vulnerability is remarkably higher in the drought-prone lowlands than in the other ecological zones, although differences in poverty rates are modest; the vulnerability rate is more than two times larger than the poverty rate in the lowlands, while the ratio is only 1.6 for the whole country. The analysis also reveals important distinctions in the sources of vulnerability. In the drought-prone lowlands: (i) vulnerability due to aggregate shocks such as droughts is lower than vulnerability due to idiosyncratic shocks in absolute terms, but its relative importance is higher compared with other ecological zones; and (ii) poverty-induced vulnerability is relatively more important than risk-induced vulnerability in contrast to other regions where risk-induced vulnerability is higher than poverty-induced vulnerability. These findings attest to the unique nature of the drought-prone lowlands compared with the other agroecological zones and points in favor of policies and programs tailored specifically to the areas.

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  • Skoufias,Emmanuel & Vinha,Katja Pauliina & Beyene,Berhe Mekonnen, 2021. "Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in the Drought-Prone Lowlands of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9534, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9534
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mauricio Gallardo, 2018. "Identifying Vulnerability To Poverty: A Critical Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1074-1105, September.
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    1. Tseday J. Mekasha & Kenneth Mdadila & Jehovaness Aikaeli & Finn Tarp, 2022. "Export Commodity Dependence and Vulnerability to Poverty," DERG working paper series 22-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
    2. Atamanov,Aziz & Mukiza,Chris Ndatira & Ssennono,Vincent Fred, 2022. "Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10007, The World Bank.
    3. Oconnor, Christopher, 2023. "Robust estimates of vulnerability to poverty using quantile models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Barriga Cabanillas, Oscar & Bossuroy, Thomas & Corral Rodas, Paul Andres & Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2024. "Sustaining Poverty Gains: A Vulnerability Map to Guide Social Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 17193, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R5 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis
    • I - Health, Education, and Welfare

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