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Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in the Drought-prone Lowlands of Ethiopia

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  • Emmanuel Skoufias
  • Katja Vinha
  • Berhe Mekonnen Beyene

Abstract

A forward-looking measure of ‘vulnerability to poverty’ is estimated and a concerted effort is made to understand the sources of vulnerability in the drought-prone lowlands of Ethiopia. Using the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey and the Welfare Monitoring Survey of 2015–16, which include additional zones in the Afar and Somali regions increasing the representativeness of the survey in pastoral areas, the analysis reveals that vulnerability is remarkably higher in the drought-prone lowlands than in the other ecological zones, even though differences in poverty rates are modest. The analysis also reveals important distinctions in the sources of vulnerability. In the drought-prone lowlands, (i) the prevalence of both poverty-induced and risk-induced vulnerability is the highest among all the ecological zones and (ii) the importance of vulnerability due to aggregate shocks, such as droughts, relative to vulnerability due to idiosyncratic shocks is higher than in the other ecological zones. These findings attest to the unique nature of the drought-prone lowlands in comparison to the other agroecological zones of Ethiopia and the need for adaptive social protection programmes targeting not only the chronically poor but also the vulnerable.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Skoufias & Katja Vinha & Berhe Mekonnen Beyene, 2024. "Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in the Drought-prone Lowlands of Ethiopia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:33:y:2024:i:2:p:167-184.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Atamanov,Aziz & Mukiza,Chris Ndatira & Ssennono,Vincent Fred, 2022. "Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10007, The World Bank.
    2. Tseday J. Mekasha & Kenneth Mdadila & Jehovaness Aikaeli & Finn Tarp, 2022. "Export Commodity Dependence and Vulnerability to Poverty," DERG working paper series 22-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
    3. Oconnor, Christopher, 2023. "Robust estimates of vulnerability to poverty using quantile models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Barriga Cabanillas, Oscar & Bossuroy, Thomas & Corral Rodas, Paul Andres & Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2024. "Sustaining Poverty Gains: A Vulnerability Map to Guide Social Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 17193, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    poverty; drought; vulnerability; JEL Classification: Q54; C63; R11; R5; I3;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R5 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis
    • I - Health, Education, and Welfare

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