The Effect of Pricing Instruments on CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Australia

This study investigates the emission reduction effects of a mix of market-based climate policies in Australia, where a dramatic ramp-up of incentives for renewable electricity generation was paired with a short-lived carbon tax. A synthetic control method is employed to estimate the joint effect of the policies. Contrary to the general perception in the existing literature, this study shows that the green electricity and carbon tax policies together caused a 7 percent reduction in emissions per capita from 2009 to 2018. The emission reduction impacts attenuated when the carbon price was repealed, and the renewable targets were softened. The study also finds that the policy mix did not reduce the production of Australian coal and may have expanded its export. The findings suggest that even imperfect climate change mitigation policies can have substantial and persistent effects on emissions as well as unintended consequences.