IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10559.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea

Author

Listed:
  • Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes
  • Pape,Utz Johann

Abstract

Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments re-main limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly–and logistically often infeasible–direct measurement. The methods h ave wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes & Pape,Utz Johann, 2023. "Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10559, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10559
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099230409052324201/pdf/IDU05a856a9201920042e20b9fb0f2f29afbb088.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han & Tae-Go Kwon, 2002. "Further Long Memory Properties of Inflationary Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 496-510, January.
    2. CHIA-LIN CHANG & MICHAEL McALEER & ROENGCHAI TANSUCHAT, 2012. "Modelling Long Memory Volatility In Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-27.
    3. Ray Huffaker & Garry Griffith & Charles Dambui & Maurizio Canavari, 2021. "Empirical Detection and Quantification of Price Transmission in Endogenously Unstable Markets: The Case of the Global–Domestic Coffee Supply Chain in Papua New Guinea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Dean Baker, 1996. "The Overstated CPI— Can It Really Be True?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 26-33, September.
    5. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    6. David E. Lebow & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2003. "Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index: Where Do We Stand?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 159-201, March.
    7. Wang, Dieter & Andrée, Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro, Andres Fernando & Spencer, Phoebe Girouard, 2022. "Transitions into and out of food insecurity: A probabilistic approach with panel data evidence from 15 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han & Tae-Go Kwon, 2002. "Further Long Memory Properties of Inflationary Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 496-510, January.
    9. Ten,Gi Khan & Merfeld,Joshua David & Hirfrfot,Kibrom Tafere & Newhouse,David Locke & Pape,Utz Johann, 2022. "How Well Can Real-Time Indicators Track the Economic Impacts of a Crisis Like COVID-19 ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10080, The World Bank.
    10. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    11. Tong, Howell, 2015. "Threshold models in time series analysis—Some reflections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 485-491.
    12. World Bank, 2022. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2022," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 37224.
    13. World Bank, 2022. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2022," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 36519.
    14. Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han & Tae‐Go Kwon, 2002. "Further Long Memory Properties of Inflationary Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 496-510, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steve Penson & Mathijs Lomme & Zacharey Austin Carmichael & Manni,Alemu & Shrestha,Sudeep & Bo Pieter Johannes Andree, 2024. "A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10768, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes, 2021. "Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9886, The World Bank.
    2. CHIA-LIN CHANG & MICHAEL McALEER & ROENGCHAI TANSUCHAT, 2012. "Modelling Long Memory Volatility In Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-27.
    3. Yuanhua Feng & Thomas Gries & Sebastian Letmathe, 2023. "FIEGARCH, modulus asymmetric FILog-GARCH and trend-stationary dual long memory time series," Working Papers CIE 156, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2013. "Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 1-42, February.
    5. Heni Boubaker & Bassem Saidane & Mouna Ben Saad Zorgati, 2022. "Modelling the dynamics of stock market in the gulf cooperation council countries: evidence on persistence to shocks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Jinquan Liu & Tingguo Zheng & Jianli Sui, 2008. "Dual long memory of inflation and test of the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 240-254, June.
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-009 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela ben, 2015. "Global factors driving structural changes in the co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 311-329.
    9. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Alsharari, Nizar, 2019. "The dynamic behavior of evolving efficiency: Evidence from the UAE stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 119-135.
    10. Terence Tai Leung Chong & Chenxi Lu & Wing Hong Chan, 2020. "Long Range Dependence And Structural Breaks In The Gold Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 257-273, March.
    11. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2009. "Dual long-memory, structural breaks and the link between turnover and the range-based volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 838-851, December.
    13. Paul Alagidede & Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2010. "Persistence of Inflationary Shocks: Implications for West African Monetary Union Membership," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2010/8, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    14. Olamide Ebenezer G & Daisi, F.T., 2025. "A Multivariate Analysis of Variance Approach to Business Success Factors of SMEs in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(14), pages 161-173, January.
    15. Naeem, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Saleem, Kashif & Mustafa, Faisal, 2019. "Risk analysis of high frequency precious metals returns by using long memory model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 399-409.
    16. repec:ipg:wpaper:9 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Conrad Christian & Karanasos Menelaos, 2005. "Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-38, December.
    18. repec:ocp:ppaper:pb18-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lena Dräger & Theoplasti Kolaiti & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic convergence and divergence within EMU using long memory," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2333-2356, November.
    20. Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Alexandros & Magdalinos, Anastasios & Canepa, Alessandra, 2024. "A Unified Theory for Arma Models with Varying Coefficients: One Solution Fits All," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202413, University of Turin.
    21. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 207-218.
    22. Walid Chkili & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Long memory and asymmetry in the volatility of commodity markets and Basel Accord: choosing between models," Working Papers 2013-9, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    23. Arroyo Marioli,Francisco & Vegh,Carlos A., 2023. "Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries : How Much Does It Pour andWhy ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10428, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10559. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.