IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10227.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Latin America’s Growth: Looking through the Demand Glass

Author

Listed:
  • De La Torre,Augusto
  • Ize,Alain

Abstract

This paper revisits the historical roots of Latin America’s disappointing growth using a novelmacro and trade-based growth decomposition and a simple model of industrialization in a commodities-exportingcountry with a large informal sector. The approach suggests the need to better qualify two opposite narratives: that thepost-1982 (“neoliberal”) reforms have failed, and it is time to look back to the import substitution industrializationera for policy inspiration; and that the post-1982 reforms went in the right direction but must be completed to unleashsignificant productivity gains. Both can be misleading because they downplay the role of demand. The apparent“miracle” of import substitution industrialization does not provide a realistic point of comparison because it reflectedan unsustainable, demand-induced boost in productivity. And the gains expected from Washington Consensus-style reformsalone can be overstated because they are derived from overly restrictive assumptions on demand. By allowing demand toplay a more central role, the paper finds a close and revealing relationship between the growth patterns followedby Latin American countries, the quality of their macroeconomic policies, the nature of their trade, and thesegmentation of their labor markets. Going forward, the policy agenda calls for an outwardly oriented growthstrategy, supported by a more proactive role for the state that promotes not only efficiency in supply, but also theappeal to demand.

Suggested Citation

  • De La Torre,Augusto & Ize,Alain, 2022. "Latin America’s Growth: Looking through the Demand Glass," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10227, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099546311082288505/pdf/IDU068d946b1072ad0489c0a6e20b03936c7dc30.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Informality and Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 109-126, Summer.
    2. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2017. "The Causes and Costs of Misallocation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 151-174, Summer.
    3. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Charles Sabel & Ernesto H. Stein & Alberto Trejos, 2016. "Two to Tango: Public-Private Collaboration for Productive Development Policies," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 94716, February.
    4. Bernard, Andrew & Fort, Teresa & Smeets, Valerie & Warzynski, Frederic, 2020. "Heterogeneous Globalization: Offshoring and Reorganization," CEPR Discussion Papers 14485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    7. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Mario Canales & Álvaro García Marín, 2018. "Productividad, Tamaño y Empresas Súper-Estrella: Evidencia Microeconómica para Chile," Working Papers wp458, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    9. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    10. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:idb:brikps:7694 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    13. Ricardo Hausmann & Bailey Klinger, 2008. "Growth Diagnostics: Perú," Research Department Publications 2005, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    15. Christian Saborowski & Florian Misch, 2019. "Firm Size, Life Cycle Dynamics and Growth Constraints: Evidence from Mexico," IMF Working Papers 2019/087, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, December.
    17. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7315.
    18. Ricardo Hausmann & Bailey Klinger & Rodrigo Wagner, 2008. "Doing Growth Diagnostics in Practice: A 'Mindbook'," CID Working Papers 177, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    19. Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: an Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728.
    20. Douglas A. Irwin, 2020. "The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution," NBER Working Papers 27919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    22. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel Savastano, 1988. "Latin America's Intraregional Trade: Evolution and Future Prospects," NBER Working Papers 2738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-221, July.
    25. Jorge Thompson Araujo & Markus Brueckner & Mateo Clavijo & Ekaterina Vostroknutova & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2014. "Benchmarking the Determinants of Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications - Reports 21318, The World Bank Group.
    26. Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Sabel, Charles & Stein, Ernesto H. & Trejos, Alberto, 2016. "Two to Tango: Public-Private Collaboration for Productive Development Policies," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 7694, December.
    27. Busso Matias & Madrigal Lucia & Pagés Carmen, 2013. "Productivity and resource misallocation in Latin America1)," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 903-932, June.
    28. Santiago Levy & Michael Walton, 2009. "No Growth without Equity? Inequality, Interests, and Competition in Mexico," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13263.
    29. Gisela Di Meglio & Jorge Gallego & Andrés Maroto & Maria Savona, 2015. "Services in Developing Economies: A new chance for catching-up?," SPRU Working Paper Series 2015-32, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    30. Daniel Lederman & William F. Maloney, 2012. "Does What You Export Matter? In Search of Empirical Guidance for Industrial Policies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9371.
    31. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    32. Pranab Bardhan, 2016. "State and Development: The Need for a Reappraisal of the Current Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 862-892, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan Gelb & Christian J. Meyer & Vijaya Ramachandran, 2014. "Development as Diffusion: Manufacturing Productivity and Sub-Saharan Africa's Missing Middle," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-042, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Alan Gelb, Christian Meyer, and Vijaya Ramachandran, 2014. "Development as Diffusion: Manufacturing Productivity and Sub-Saharan Africa’s Missing Middle - Working Paper 357," Working Papers 357, Center for Global Development.
    3. Gelb, Alan & Meyer, Christian J. & Ramachandran, Vijaya, 2014. "Development as diffusion: Manufacturing productivity and sub-Saharan Africa's missing middle," WIDER Working Paper Series 042, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Valeriy V. Mironov & Liudmila D. Konovalova, 2019. "Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, April.
    5. Asatryan, Zareh & Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Birkholz, Carlo & Gomtsyan, David, 2021. "Favoritism and firms: Micro evidence and macro implications," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Reeg, Caroline, 2015. "Micro and small enterprises as drivers for job creation and decent work," IDOS Discussion Papers 10/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    7. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2017. "The Causes and Costs of Misallocation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 151-174, Summer.
    8. Steven Bond-Smith, 2024. "Diversifying Hawai‘i's Specialized Economy: A Spatial Economic Perspective," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 38(1), pages 40-59, February.
    9. Konté,Maty & Kouame,Wilfried Anicet Kouakou & Mensah,Emmanuel Buadi, 2021. "Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Developing Countries : Intra- or Inter-Reallocation Channel ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9733, The World Bank.
    10. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    11. Sean M. Dougherty & Octavio R. Escobar, 2016. "Could Mexico become the new ‘China’? Policy drivers of competitiveness and productivity," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(2), pages 169-198, December.
    12. Popov, Vladimir, 2010. "Development theories and development experience: half a century journey," MPRA Paper 28111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chiquiar Daniel & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "Competitiveness and Growth of the Mexican Economy," Working Papers 2009-11, Banco de México.
    14. Steven Bond-Smith, 2022. "Diversifying Hawai‘i’s specialized economy: A spatial economic perspective," Working Papers 2022-5, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    15. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920, September.
    16. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Smart Development Banks," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 395-420, June.
    17. Hailu, Degol & Kipgen, Chinpihoi, 2017. "The Extractives Dependence Index (EDI)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 251-264.
    18. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    19. Oriana Bandiera & Renata Lemos & Andrea Prat & Raffaella Sadun, 2018. "Managing the Family Firm: Evidence from CEOs at Work," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1605-1653.
    20. Tamberi, Massimo, 2020. "Productivity differentials along the development process: A “MESO” approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 99-107.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.