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Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in Uganda

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  • Atamanov,Aziz
  • Mukiza,Chris Ndatira
  • Ssennono,Vincent Fred

Abstract

Robust poverty reduction in Uganda was disrupted by episodes of shocks during recent years.This paper estimates vulnerability to poverty in Uganda and explores the sources and main correlates of vulnerabilityusing the most recent Uganda National Household Survey 2019/20. The analysis reveals that about 50 percent ofpopulation in Uganda is vulnerable to poverty. Vulnerability rates are much higher than poverty in rural areas. Urbanvulnerability is predominantly risk induced (high volatility of consumption) and mostly associated with idiosyncraticrather than covariate shocks. Rural vulnerability is equally split between risk-induced and poverty-induced vulnerability(permanently low consumption). Although in absolute terms vulnerability due to covariate shocks is still lower thanvulnerability due to idiosyncratic shocks, in relative terms covariate shocks are more important in rural areas.Education is found to be one of the key variables related to lower vulnerability to poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Atamanov,Aziz & Mukiza,Chris Ndatira & Ssennono,Vincent Fred, 2022. "Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10007, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10007
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    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099453504182233549/pdf/IDU09d67fbbb087910490c0a09101e9e0b9e3eb0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank Group, 2018. "Uganda Economic Update, 12th Edition, November 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 31003, The World Bank Group.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Uganda Economic Update, 14th Edition, February 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 33323, The World Bank Group.
    3. Wim Naude & Amelia Santos-Paulino & Mark McGillivray, 2009. "Measuring Vulnerability: An Overview and Introduction," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 183-191.
    4. Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth, 2009. "Estimating Households Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks: A Novel Method Applied in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1222-1234, July.
    5. Emmanuel Skoufias & Katja Vinha & Berhe Mekonnen Beyene, 2024. "Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in the Drought-prone Lowlands of Ethiopia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184.
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    1. Oconnor, Christopher, 2023. "Robust estimates of vulnerability to poverty using quantile models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

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