IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wboper/30506.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When is a Current Account Deficit Bad?

Author

Listed:
  • Sharmila Devadas
  • Norman Loayza

Abstract

A current account deficit is sustainable when its underlying drivers support a smooth correction in the future. It is unsustainable when symptomatic of macroeconomic imbalances that would eventually trigger disruptive adjustments. Although a current account deficit in itself is neither good nor bad, it is likely to be unsustainable and lead to harmful consequences when it is persistently large, fuels consumption rather than investment, occurs alongside excessive domestic credit growth, follows an overvalued exchange rate, or accompanies unrestrained fiscal deficits. Even though a current account deficit is often paralleled by deteriorating net foreign assets, it may not be as informative about immediate-term financial vulnerabilities as the size, maturity, and currency composition of gross financial stocks.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Sharmila Devadas & Norman Loayza, 2018. "When is a Current Account Deficit Bad?," World Bank Publications - Reports 30506, The World Bank Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:30506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30506/130415-BRI-PUBLIC-ADD-SERIES-When-is-a-current-account-deficit-bad.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    3. Jane Haltmaier, 2015. "Have Global Value Chains Contributed to Global Imbalances?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1154, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166.
    5. Oriana Bandiera & Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2000. "Does Financial Reform Raise or Reduce Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 239-263, May.
    6. Luis Servén & Ha Nguyen, 2013. "Global Imbalances: Origins and Prospects," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 191-219, August.
    7. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    8. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Milesi-Ferreti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current account sustainability," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34294, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Yuqing Xing & Neal Detert, 2011. "How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People's Republic of China:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 66(03), pages 339-350, September.
    12. Joy, Mark & Lisack, Noemie & Lloyd, Simon & Reinhardt, Dennis & Sajedi, Rana & Whitaker, Simon, 2018. "Mind the (current account) gap," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 43, Bank of England.
    13. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2017. "Current Account Deficits During Heightened Risk: Menacing or Mitigating?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(601), pages 571-623, May.
    14. Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Ms. Mitali Das & Mr. Julian Di Giovanni & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jungjin Lee & Jair Rodriguez & Mr. Mauric, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2013/272, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2015. "Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously," BIS Working Papers 525, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    17. Yuqing Xing & Neal Detert, 2010. "How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People’s Republic of China," Trade Working Papers 23280, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Yuqing Xing & Neal Detert, 2010. "How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People’s Republic of China," Trade Working Papers 23128, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    19. Stefan Avdjiev & Mary Everett & Philip R Lane & Hyun Song Shin, 2018. "Tracking the international footprints of global firms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    20. Fabian Lindner, 2015. "Does Saving Increase the Supply of Credit? A Critique of Loanable Funds Theory," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2015(4), pages 1-1, February.
    21. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha, 2019. "Current account modelling - long-term trends and cyclical factors," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2019, pages 12-16, Czech National Bank.
    2. Maja Bacovic & Danijela Jacimovic & Julija Cerovic Smolovic, 2020. "Impact of Export of Travel Services on Current Account Balance and Growth in Mediterranean Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(6), pages 710-728.
    3. Maja Bacovic & Danijela Jacimovic & Julija Cerovic Smolovic, . "Impact of Export of Travel Services on Current Account Balance and Growth in Mediterranean Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 0.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberola, Enrique & Estrada, Ángel & Viani, Francesca, 2020. "Global imbalances from a stock perspective: The asymmetry between creditors and debtors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Working Papers hal-04141342, HAL.
    3. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    4. Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2018. "Methodologies for the Assessment of Current Account Benchmarks," European Economy - Discussion Papers 086, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Rihab Bousnina & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2022. "Current Account Balance and Financial Development in MENA Countries: The Role of Institutions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(1), pages 109-142, March.
    6. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2015. "Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously," BIS Working Papers 525, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Allen, Cían, 2019. "Revisiting external imbalances: Insights from sectoral accounts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 67-101.
    8. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2015. "Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously," BIS Working Papers 525, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Brumm, Johannes & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Trottner, Fabian, 2019. "Global value chain participation and current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 111-124.
    10. Evans, Martin, 2013. "Global Imbalances, Risk, and the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 52363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Evans, Martin D.D., 2014. "External balances, trade flows and financial conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 271-290.
    12. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Shen, Leilei & Silva, Peri, 2018. "Value-added exports and U.S. local labor markets: Does China really matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 479-504.
    14. Meng, Bo & Ye, Ming, 2022. "Smile curves in global value chains: Foreign- vs. domestic-owned firms; the U.S. vs. China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 15-29.
    15. Aichele, Rahel & Heiland, Inga, 2018. "Where is the value added? Trade liberalization and production networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 130-144.
    16. Turrini, Alessandro & Zeugner, Stefan, 2019. "Benchmarks for net international investment positions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 149-164.
    17. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Working Papers hal-04141160, HAL.
    18. Suder, Gabriele & Liesch, Peter W. & Inomata, Satoshi & Mihailova, Irina & Meng, Bo, 2015. "The evolving geography of production hubs and regional value chains across East Asia: Trade in value-added," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 404-416.
    19. Herkenhoff, Philipp & Sauré, Philip, 2021. "How expected inflation distorts the current account and the valuation effect," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    20. Harkmann, Kersti & Staehr, Karsten, 2021. "Current account drivers and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:30506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tal Ayalon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.