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Towards a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting Auckland's spatial distribution of ethnic groups

Author

Listed:
  • Mohana Mondal

    (University of Waikato)

  • Michael P. Cameron

    (University of Waikato)

  • Jacques Poot

    (University of Waikato and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

In this paper we describe the development, calibration and validation of a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting small area (area unit) ethnic populations in Auckland, New Zealand. The key elements of the microsimulation model are a module that projects spatial mobility (migration) within Auckland and between Auckland and the rest of the world, and a module that projects ethnic mobility. The model is developed and calibrated using 1996-2001 New Zealand Linked Census (i.e. longitudinal) data, and then projected forward to 2006. We then compare the results with the actual 2006 population. We find that in terms of indexes of overall residential sorting and ethnic diversity, our projected values are very close to the actual values. At a more disaggregated spatial scale, the model performs well in terms of the simulated normalised entropy measure of ethnic diversity for area units, but performs less well in terms of projecting residential sorting for each individual ethnic group.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohana Mondal & Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2021. "Towards a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting Auckland's spatial distribution of ethnic groups," Working Papers in Economics 21/12, University of Waikato.
    • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:21/12
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    File URL: https://repec.its.waikato.ac.nz/wai/econwp/2112.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic microsimulation model; ethnic identity; location transition; ethnic transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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