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Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary

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  • Benczúr, Péter
  • Kátay, Gábor
  • Kiss, Áron

Abstract

We present a general-equilibrium behavioural microsimulation model designed to assess long-run macroeconomic, fiscal and distributional consequences of tax and benefit reforms in a small open economy. We apply the model to reforms adopted in Hungary between 2008 and 2013, a period characterised by intense reform activity in the wake of the financial crisis. Innovations of the model include the treatment of labour supply responses of individuals, affecting both participation (extensive margin) and work intensity (intensive margin), and the incorporation of general-equilibrium effects by a parsimonious macroeconomic model. Our results suggest that Hungary's flat tax reform may have boosted output by improving work incentives of high earners (along the intensive margin), but reduced work incentives and employment levels of low earners. We find that policy measures introduced since 2008 substantially increase income inequality. Moreover, the contribution of changes after 2010 is about four times that of the changes before 2010.

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  • Benczúr, Péter & Kátay, Gábor & Kiss, Áron, 2018. "Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 441-457.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:441-457
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.06.016
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    3. Horváth, Michal & Senaj, Matúš & Siebertová, Zuzana & Švarda, Norbert & Valachyová, Jana, 2019. "The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation in a dynamic macroeconomic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 171-184.
    4. Yan, Eric & Feng, Qu & Ng, Yew-Kwang, 2021. "Do we need ramsey taxation? Our existing taxes are largely corrective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 526-538.
    5. Gábor P. Kiss, 2020. "Aggregate Fiscal Stabilisation Policy: Panacea or Scapegoat?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 55-87.
    6. Diego d'Andria & Jason DeBacker & Richard Evans & Jonathan Pycroft & Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec, 2019. "Micro-founded tax policy effects in a heterogenenous-agent macro-model," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2019-01, Joint Research Centre.
    7. Norbert Švarda & Jana Valachyová & Matúš Senaj & Michal Horváth & Zuzana Siebertová, 2018. "The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation linked with a dynamic macroeconomic framework," Discussion Papers 50, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    8. D'ANDRIA Diego & DEBACKER Jason & EVANS Richard W. & PYCROFT Jonathan & ZACHLOD-JELEC Magdalena, 2021. "Taxing income or consumption: macroeconomic and distributional effects for Italy," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-13, Joint Research Centre.
    9. City Eldeep & Chahir Zaki, 2023. "On the unfinished business of stabilization programs: a CGE model of Egypt," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 66-100, January.
    10. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Lokshin, Michael & Kolchin, Vladimir, 2023. "Effects of public sector wages on corruption: Wage inequality matters," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 941-959.
    11. Reizer, Balázs & Gáspár, Attila, 2023. "Újabb hozzászólás az ismét elmaradt minimálbérvitához [A futher comment on the minimum wage debate]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 365-380.
    12. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Anna Pluta & Anna Zasova, 2023. "Keeping the best of two worlds: Linking CGE and microsimulation models for policy analysis," Working Papers 2023/01, Latvijas Banka.
    13. Ali Bayar & Barbara Bratta & Silvia Carta & Paolo Di Caro & Marco Manzo & Carlo Orecchia, 2021. "Assessing the effects of VAT policies with an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach: evidence on Italy," Working Papers wp2021-14, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    14. Júlia Király, 2020. "Hungary and Other Emerging EU Countries in the Financial Storm," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, Springer, number 978-3-030-49544-2, December.
    15. Mario La Torre & Helen Chiappini (ed.), 2020. "Contemporary Issues in Sustainable Finance," Palgrave Studies in Impact Finance, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-030-40248-8.
    16. Galuščák, Kamil & Kátay, Gábor, 2019. "Tax-benefit systems and differences in aggregate labour force participation: Comparative evidence from the Czech Republic and Hungary," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    17. Vanesa Jorda & Jose M. Alonso, 2020. "What works to mitigate and reduce relative (and absolute) inequality?: A systematic review," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-152, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    H22; H31; C63; Behavioural microsimulation; Linked micro-macro model; Flat tax; Structural reforms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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