With a Little Help from My Friends: Global Electioneering and World Bank Lending

This paper uses monthly World Bank project-level data to assess the impact of upcoming elections in recipient countries on loan activity. We analyze the extent to which geopolitics influence both the timing and size of loan commitments and disbursements. While developing countries have better access to new World Bank loans when they vote with the U.S. in the United Nations General Assembly, we do not find that the political cycle plays a role in the timing or size of new loans. For already approved loans, disbursement is faster when countries are aligned with the U.S. in the UN. Furthermore, disbursement accelerates prior to elections if the country is geopolitically aligned with the U.S. but decelerates if the country is not. These disbursement patterns are consistent with global electioneering that serves U.S. foreign policy interests.