IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/2008_42.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamics of Parallel Economies. Measuring the Informal Sector in M�xico

Author

Listed:
  • Jos� Brambila Macias

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Guido Cazzavillan

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

Abstract

The existence of parallel economies that operate in the shadows of informality within most Latin American countries is widely recognized by the economic literature. However, its composition, size and effects on economic growth are still open questions. In this paper, we estimate the size and the evolution of the Mexican informal economy in the last three decades using a vector error correction model. In addition to the standard explanatory variables traditionally used in the currency demand approach, we include remittances given their relevance in the Mexican economic system. The results indicate that informality prior to the late 1980�s accounted for at least two thirds of GDP, while stabilizing around one third of GDP in the last decade. Furthermore, our estimates provide evidence of a positive long run relationship between informality and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jos� Brambila Macias & Guido Cazzavillan, 2008. "The Dynamics of Parallel Economies. Measuring the Informal Sector in M�xico," Working Papers 2008_42, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2008_42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.unive.it/web/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/DEC/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2008/WP_DSE_brambila_cazzavillan_42_08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply," NBER Chapters, in: The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply, pages 1-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Peter S. Spiro, 1996. "Monetary Estimates of the Underground Economy: A Critical Evaluation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 171-175, April.
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:86:y:1984:i:4:p:423-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    5. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    6. Edgar L. Feige, 1979. "How Big Is the Irregular Economy?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 5-13, November.
    7. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    8. Maurizio Bovi & Roberto Dell’Anno, 2010. "The changing nature of the OECD shadow economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 19-48, January.
    9. Maurizio Bovi & Laura Castellucci, 2001. "Cosa sappiamo dell'economia sommersa in Italia al di l? dei luoghi comuni? Alcune proposizioni empiricamente fondate," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2001(6).
    10. Adrián Guisarri, 1987. "La Demanda de Circulante y la Informalidad en la Argentina 1930-1983," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 24(72), pages 197-224.
    11. Fethi Ogunc & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2000. "Estimating The Underground Economy In Turkey," Discussion Papers 0004, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    13. Helberger, Christof & Knepel, Helmut, 1988. "How big is the shadow economy? : A re-analysis of the unobserved-variable approach of B.S. Frey and H. Weck-Hannemann," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 965-976, April.
    14. Ahumada, Hildegart & Alvaredo, Facundo & Canavese, Alfredo J., 2006. "The Demand for Currency Approach and the Size of the Shadow Economy: A Critical Assessment," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt6zn9p98b, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    15. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kaliberda, Aleksander, 1996. "Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies : a framework of analysis and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691, The World Bank.
    16. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Schneider, Friedrich & Chattopadhyay, Sumana, 2006. "The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 428-443, August.
    17. Guillermo Javier Vuletin, 2008. "Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2008/102, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José Brambila Macias & Guido Cazzavillan, 2010. "Modeling the informal economy in Mexico:a structural equation approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(1), pages 345-365, September.
    2. Santos-Pérez, Rubén, 2016. "Estimación de la economía informal para México mediante un método monetario, 1970-2012," eseconomía, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 11(45), pages 71-103, Segundo s.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Macias, Jose Brambila & Cazzavillan, Guido, 2009. "The dynamics of parallel economies. Measuring the informal sector in Mexico," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 189-199, September.
    2. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Manamba EPAPHRA & Moga Tano JILENGA, 2017. "Currency Demand, the Subterranean Economy and Tax Evasion: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 187-211, June.
    4. Jasna Atanasijević & Marko Danon & Zorana Lužanin & Dušan Kovačević, 2022. "Shadow Economy Estimation Using Cash Demand Approach: The Case of Serbia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    5. Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 256-280, June.
    6. Schneider, Friedrich, 2014. "The Shadow Economy and Shadow Labor Force: A Survey of Recent Developments," IZA Discussion Papers 8278, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    8. Friedrich Schneider & Robert Klinglmair, 2004. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we know?," Economics working papers 2004-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    9. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 839-858, November.
    10. Schneider Friedrich & Buehn Andreas, 2017. "Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open questions," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, March.
    11. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio E. Montenegro, 2011. "Shadow Economies All Over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Misbah Kiani & Adeel Ahmed & Khalid Zaman, 2015. "Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches for measuring underground economy of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 295-317, January.
    13. Friedrich Schneider & Friedrich Schneider, 2008. "Shadow Economies and Corruption all over the World: What do we Really Know?," Chapters, in: Michael Pickhardt & Edward Shinnick (ed.), The Shadow Economy, Corruption and Governance, chapter 7, pages 122-187, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Schneider, Friedrich, 2004. "The Size of the Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: First Results over the Period 1999 to 2003," IZA Discussion Papers 1431, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Donal Mac Géidigh & Friedrich Schneider & Matthias Blum, 2016. "Grey Matters: Charting the Development of the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6234, CESifo.
    16. José Brambila Macias & Guido Cazzavillan, 2010. "Modeling the informal economy in Mexico:a structural equation approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(1), pages 345-365, September.
    17. Putniņš, Tālis J. & Sauka, Arnis, 2015. "Measuring the shadow economy using company managers," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 471-490.
    18. Achim, Monica Violeta & Postea, Mihaela Maria & Noja, Gratiela Georgiana, 2024. "New estimate of shadow economy based on the total energy consumption. Evidence from the European Union countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    19. Mai HASSAN & Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A MIMIC model and A Currency Demand approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 309-339, June.
    20. Mai Hassan & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5727, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informal Sector; currency demand; VEC; Remittances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2008_42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sassano Sonia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.