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Modeling the informal economy in Mexico:a structural equation approach

Author

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  • José Brambila Macias
  • Guido Cazzavillan

    (Trade and Markets Division-FAO of the UN, Italy
    Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Italy)

Abstract

This paper uses annual data for the period 1970-2006 in order to estimate and investigate the evolution of the Mexican informal economy. In order to do so, we model the informal economy as a latent variable and try to explain it through relationships between possible cause and indicator variables using structural equation modeling (SEM). The model uses tax burden, salary levels, inflation, unemployment and excessive regulation as potential incentives or deterrents for the informal economy. Our results indicate that the Mexican informal sector at the beginning of the 1970's accounted for 40 percent of GDP, and then it slightly decreased to stabilize around 30 percent of GDP from the late 1980's onwards. The results also confirm the importance of salaries and excessive regulation as causes of the informal economy in Mexico and the existence of a positive relationship between informality and GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • José Brambila Macias & Guido Cazzavillan, 2010. "Modeling the informal economy in Mexico:a structural equation approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(1), pages 345-365, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.44:year:2011:issue1:pp:345-365
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    Cited by:

    1. Mai Hassan & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5727, CESifo.
    2. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2010. "Challenging the popular wisdom. New estimates of the unobserved economy," Working Papers 184, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
    3. Majid Maddah & Bahareh Sobhani, 2014. "The Effective Factors on Informal Economy in Developing Countries (Panel Data Model)," International Journal of Regional Development, Macrothink Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 12-25, December.
    4. Nora Angour & Mohammed Nmili, 2019. "Estimating Shadow Economy and Tax Evasion: Evidence from Morocco," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(5), pages 1-7, May.
    5. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2011. "Institutions, policies and economic development. What are the causes of the shadow economy?," Working Papers 206, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2011.
    6. Marcus Ruge, 2010. "Determinants and Size of the Shadow Economy - A Structural Equation Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 511-523.
    7. Abbas Khandan & Masoud Nili, 2014. "Government interventions and the size of the informal economy. The case of Iran (1971-2007)," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 71-90, March.
    8. Vicente Ríos & Antonio Gómez & Pedro Pascual, 2021. "Raising the Accuracy of Shadow Economy Measurements," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 71-125, November.
    9. Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Potashnikоv, Vladimir (Поташников, Владимир) & Shilov, Kirill (Шилов, Кирилл), 2017. "Determination of the Factors of Economic Development within the Framework of Sem (Structural Equation Modeling) [Определение детерминант экономического развития в рамках подхода моделирования струк," Working Papers 051737, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    10. Brock, Gregory & German-Soto, Vicente, 2017. "Regional industrial informality and efficiency in Mexico, 1990–2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 928-941.
    11. Mahieddine Adnan Ghecham, 2017. "The Impact of Informal Sector on Income Distribution: Could Concentration of Income be Explained by the Size of Informal Sector?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 594-600.
    12. Bennihi, Aymen Salah & Bouriche, Lahcene & Schneider, Friedrich, 2021. "The informal economy in Algeria: New insights using the MIMIC approach and the interaction with the formal economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 470-491.
    13. Arzhenovskiy, Sergey, 2023. "Estimate of shadow economy dynamics in Russia and regions: The inflationary aspect," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 69, pages 121-140.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informal Economy; Economic Growth; Structural Equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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